NEW$ TO U(SE)

The spring rally has been a relief for shares of embattled retailers. Can the economy recover in time to justify the new optimism?
The key is the holiday season, when retailers make the vast majority of their money. Investors are betting that by the fourth quarter the economy will have stabilized and consumers will be ready [...]

Keep in mind that the Fed has been pretty poor in economic forecasting in the last 10 years. It seems to me that Fed officials, including Ben Bernanke, have been on a spirit raising campaign lately, much like President Obama. A rising stock market and more upbeat consumers can help the housing and automobile markets [...]

The banks have been the spark plug of this powerful stock-market rally, but past may not be prologue. Goldman’s missing month.
THE AMAZING RANDI. WE’D NEVER HEARD OF THE CHAP UNTIL last week, when we were indulging in an old habit that began way back when we were a copy boy (the journalistic equivalent of a [...]

After months of gloom, some say the signs of economic revival are in full bloom. The Globe’s Barrie McKenna looks at the numbers and matches them with reality
Call them what you will: Glimmers of hope, tentative signs or green shoots. Hints of recovery are beginning to punctuate the pervasive gloom, and fears of economic cataclysm [...]

First, U.S. consumers cut out all but essential spending. Then came the business retrenchment. The next stage will be recovery, and while the recession probably has a bit further to run, the pieces are falling in place for a bounce, albeit a modest one.
A record amount of the U.S. industrial base was sitting idle last [...]

Retail sales declined in March, the government reported on Tuesday, ending two months of tentative gains and signaling more weakness in demand as worried consumers continue to tighten their budgets.

The 1.1 percent monthly drop in retail sales displayed the fragility of some recent “glimmers of hope” in the economy cited by President Obamaand other policy [...]

Sales trends are continuing to improve according to ICSC-Goldman’s report which shows a 0.8 percent gain in the April 11 week for a year-on-year pace of -0.4 percent. The year-on-year trend has moved to the low negative single digits over the past three weeks, much better than earlier rates this year including back-to-back -1.4 percent [...]

Same store sales for March were on the weak side but yoy comparisons are distorted by Easter being in March last year and in mid-April this year. This has obviously hurt the comparison but this is hard to quantify (some apparel retailers say that yoy comps are reduced by 5-6% as a result). Also see [...]

The deleveraging of America will likely go on for many years, impacting the growth rate of the world economy. How quickly consumers restore their balance sheet is key to the pace of economic recovery. I keep a close wztch on this on my tab CONSUMER WATCH.
FIFTY years after executives at Bank of America had a [...]

My readers should not have been surprised that retail sales held up quite well in February despite very poor economic news. My tracking of a few indicators gave clues that sales had not deteriorated and, in fact, improved a little (click on the CONSUMER WATCH TAB or here). Chain store sales also held up well [...]