NEW$ TO U(SE)

Chain store sales surged 2.9% last week. Recent volatility has been very high but the upward trend is good to see.

The 4-week moving average has yet to break on the upside however. Trailing 4-week sales are 1.2% below their recent high (August 2009) and only 1.1% higher than last year’s depressed level.

US personal income rose 0.1% in January, following average monthly gains of 0.33% in the previous 3 months. During the last 3 and 6 months, personal income growth hovers around 3.0% annualized. Year-over-year, personal income is up 1.1%, the first positive YoY growth rate since December 2008.

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US chain stores released their February same-store-sales this morning. Given that sales were cratering at this time last year, current year growth rates must be scrutinized to have an accurate reading of true trends among retailers.

For example, Abercrombie & Fitch reported a 5% SSS growth this February, 2% better than The Gap’s performance. However, ANF’s February 2009 sales were off 30% vs a 12% decline for GPS. As a result, ANF February 2010 sales are 27% below their February 2008 level, worst than January’s –14% reading, while GPS’ February 2010 sales are 9% below their 2008 level, better than January’s –19%.

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But they are down 0.9% year-to-date. The trailing 4-week sales are up only 0.7% from last year’s depressed level.

A wave of disappointing economic news is beginning to hit. We have been warning for quite some time that the February blizzards would depress activity during that month. Even the consumers’ mood was impacted by the weather. According to the Conference Board, the index of consumer confidence fell more than 10 points in February, the worst decline in a year.  Why is the impact so large?

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Volatility remains high but US chain store sales rose 2.3% last week. The 4-week moving average gained a bit but stands 0.7% below its level one month ago and only 0.6% above last year’s depressed level.

Wal-Mart’s same-store sales declined 1.6% in Q4 against a very strong 6% gain in the generally depressed Q4 2008. The company says that YoY comps will remain difficult at least through April.

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ICSC reports that US chain store sales declined 1.6% last week (ended Feb 13). Trailing 4-week sales have declined 1.8% and are only 0.8% above last year’s depressed level.

Here is the WSJ summary:

(…) Retail sales last month increased 0.5%, the Commerce Department said Friday. (…)

Aside from the surprisingly strong increase in January, the report showed December retail sales were adjusted upward, to a 0.1% decrease from a previously reported 0.3% decline.

Excluding the car sector, which was flat in January, all other retail sales rose 0.6%, in line with expectations. Ex-auto sales in December fell 0.2%.

Some economists now see Q1 consumer spending at 3.0% and GDP at 3.5%.

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Volatility remains elevated. ICSC says that last week’s 1.4% jump was weather and Super Bowl related.

Heavy weather tripped a stock-up effect for groceries…

…was given a boost by a calendar shift for the Super Bowl.