Category Archives: ***RECOVERY WATCH

FROM DOUBLE DIP TO MUDDLING THROUGH

Posted on September 3, 2010 by Denis Ouellet

Muddling through is my scenario since early July. David Rosenberg has upgraded his double dip scenario, for now… The (employment) data are hardly strong but admittedly are not consistent with the economy contracting this quarter. But the data do not … Continue reading →

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GOOD US AUGUST EMPLOYMENT DATA

Posted on September 3, 2010 by Denis Ouellet

Private household employment jumped 891,000 in August, the biggest increase in 10 years. Over the past 8 months, private household employment has increased 2.3 million jobs, 3.3% annualized. Household employment tends to lead payroll employment which has gained only 763,000 … Continue reading →

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Posted in ***CONSUMER WATCH, ***RECOVERY WATCH, ECONOMY, EMPLOYMENT, US Employment, US economy | Leave a comment

Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index

Posted on September 3, 2010 by Denis Ouellet

Back to neutral on the basis of the most recent data. The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti business conditions index is designed to track real business conditions at high frequency. Its underlying economic indicators (weekly initial jobless claims; monthly payroll employment, industrial production, personal … Continue reading →

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U.K. Services Growth Slows

Posted on September 3, 2010 by Denis Ouellet

The U.K.’s economic recovery showed further signs of losing steam as data showed a sharp slowdown in growth in the country’s dominant services sector. Research group Markit and the Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply said the services Purchasing Managers … Continue reading →

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EUROZONE RETAIL SALES REMAIN WEAK

Posted on September 3, 2010 by Denis Ouellet

The volume of retail trade increased by 0.1% MoM in July in both the euro area (EA16) and the EU27. June sales sales rose by 0.2% and 0.3% respectively. YoY retail sales rose by 1.1% in the euro area and … Continue reading →

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Posted in ***RECOVERY WATCH, ECONOMY, Europe economy, Europe retailing, RETAILING | Leave a comment

Q4 US VEHICLE PRODUCTION TO DECLINE 21%

Posted on September 2, 2010 by Denis Ouellet

After a scheduled 36% (annual rate) increase in Q3 2010 to 8.2 million units, Ward’s Automotive now forecasts that US vehicle production is scheduled to decline 21% (a.r.) to 7.7 million units in Q4. US vehicle sales have stalled below … Continue reading →

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Global Manufacturers Still Manufacturing

Posted on September 2, 2010 by Denis Ouellet

There were some unexpected results in the August manufacturing PMI releases of both the good and bad variety. Some countries are slowing while others unexpectedly picked up. Bottom Line: Global manufacturing activity continued to expand as the summer drew to … Continue reading →

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Posted in ***RECOVERY WATCH, Asia economy, China Manufacturing, China economy, ECONOMY, Europe Manufacturing, Europe economy, Japan economy, MANUFACTURING, UK economy, US economy | Leave a comment

EUROZONE GDP RISES 1% IN Q2, OUTPACING THE US

Posted on September 2, 2010 by Denis Ouellet

The strongest rise in consumer spending since the start of the financial crisis in 2007 helped drive the euro zone’s strong growth in the second quarter, indicating that the currency area’s recovery is less vulnerable to expected slowdowns in other … Continue reading →

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US AUTO SALES DROP 5% JULY TO AUGUST

Posted on September 2, 2010 by Denis Ouellet

Auto makers sold 997,968 light vehicles in August, down from 1,262,197 a year earlier, according to Autodata Corp. The annualized selling pace for the month was 11.47 million vehicles, in line with the pace of the last five months but … Continue reading →

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Posted in ***CONSUMER WATCH, ***RECOVERY WATCH, ECONOMY, US economy, automobiles | Leave a comment

US HOUSING SECTOR SHOWING NO POSITIVE SIGN YET

Posted on September 1, 2010 by Denis Ouellet

(…)  "The sharp decline in MBA’s Purchase Application index in May had provided a clear leading indicator of the drops in new and existing home sales that were reported for June and July.  Despite the slight increase in purchase activity … Continue reading →

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Posted in ***RECOVERY WATCH, HOUSING, MORTGAGES, US housing | Leave a comment

GERMAN RETAIL SALES DECLINE IN JULY

Posted on September 1, 2010 by Denis Ouellet

(…) The Federal Statistics Office said that, adjusted for inflation and seasonal effects, sales fell by 0.3% from June, and were up 0.8% from a year earlier. That is the second successive monthly decline, and contrasts with a forecast of … Continue reading →

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JOB REPORTS POINT TO WEAK US JOB GROWTH IN AUGUST

Posted on September 1, 2010 by Denis Ouellet

(…) Private-sector jobs in the U.S. fell by 10,000 last month, according to a national employment report published by payroll giant Automatic Data Processing Inc. and consultancy Macroeconomic Advisers. (…) The ADP survey tallies only private-sector jobs, while the Bureau … Continue reading →

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Posted in ***RECOVERY WATCH, EMPLOYMENT, US Employment | Leave a comment