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Category Archives: LEADING ECON. INDIC.
CHINA EARLY WARNING INDICATOR
China’s NBS publishes a monthly scoreboard of 10 important economic statistics. The color system gives a dynamic view of the evolution of the Chinese economy. The June indicator declined from 110 to 106.7 indicating that the economy is slowing into … Continue reading
ECRI UPDATE
The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index stood at 120.7 in the week ended July 16, unchanged from the week earlier, which was originally reported as 120.6. The index’s annualized growth … Continue reading
US LEADING INDICATOR DECLINES IN JUNE. COINCIDENT TO LAGGING EDGES DOWN
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. declined 0.2 percent in June to 109.8, following a 0.5 percent increase in May, and a 0.1 percent decline in April. “The indicators point to slower growth through the fall,” … Continue reading
PHILLY FED’S ADS BUSINESS CONDITION INDEX SIGNALS SOFT PATCH
Going sideways recently after the sharp decline triggered by recent data. The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti business conditions index is designed to track real business conditions at high frequency. Its underlying economic indicators (weekly initial jobless claims; monthly payroll employment, industrial production, personal … Continue reading
GOLDMAN SACHS GLI WEAKENS FURTHER
The Global Leading Indicator (GLI) is a Goldman Sachs proprietary indicator that is meant to provide an early signal of the global industrial cycle on a monthly basis. The Advanced GLI reading, released mid-month, uses the latest available data to … Continue reading
ECRI KEEPS DROPPING
FT Alphaville: This will have bears like David Rosenberg and Albert Edwards licking their lips. The Bloomberg chart below — which you can click to enlarge — shows the Economic Cycle Research Institute’s (ECRI) weekly indicator: Friday’s breaking news is … Continue reading
Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index Tumbles in June
This one of the leading indicators I used in last week’s post The US Economy: Muddling Through. The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index™ (PCI) by UCLA Anderson School of Management, adjusted for season and for monthly workdays, fell 1.9% in … Continue reading
ECRI Keeps Falling
A measure of future U.S.economic growth fell to the lowest since July 2009, indicating that the economy will continue to slow, a research group saidon Friday. The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly … Continue reading
ECRI Keeps Deteriorating
David Rosenberg’s ECRI model now puts recession odds at 52%, up from 48% last week. The ECRI index moved closer to fully discounting a recession. The ‘spot’ index fell 0.6% in the June 25th week, to 122.2 — the lowest … Continue reading
China’s April LEI Gain Revised Sharply Lower
The Conference Board made a HUGE calculation error last month. Actually, even though the Chinese and commodity markets have reacted negatively to the revised data, there is a silver lining here: the downward revision is in the Total Floor Space … Continue reading
Europe’s Recovery Falters
The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index for the euro zone dropped 0.5% to 109.7 in May, the first fall for 14 months. The decline follows strong increases of 0.8% April and 1.2% in March. Despite the drop in May, the … Continue reading
ECRI Weekly Leading Indicators Widely Misunderstood
This comes via Barry Ritholtz’ The Big Picture The following discussion is by Lakshman Achuthan and Anirvan Banerji, co-founders of ECRI: ~~~ There’s been much attention to our work of late, culminating in a report this Tuesday from Bank of … Continue reading
