Category Archives: INTEREST RATES

RISKS, HEDGES AND OPPORTUNITIES: CANADA’S CENTRAL BANK COURAGE

Posted on July 26, 2010 by Denis Ouellet

After becoming the first G-7 country to increase benchmark rates last june, the Canadian monetary authorities without too much clamour are now carving their own path to normalization of monetary policy by raising their target rates another notch to 0.75%. … Continue reading →

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TONY BOECKH: THE ARTIFICIAL ECONOMIC RECOVERY

Posted on July 24, 2010 by Denis Ouellet

While the economic outlook is less than rosy, there are the beginnings of some potentially positive developments in the financial system. There are tentative signs that U.S. monetary constipation is easing. The implication of the tentative improvement in money and … Continue reading →

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Posted in CONTRIBUTORS, CURRENCIES, ECONOMY, EQUITIES, GOLD, INTEREST RATES, INVESTING, Tony Boeckh, US equities, bonds | Leave a comment

MORTGAGE PURCHASE APPS FINALLY IMPROVE

Posted on July 21, 2010 by Denis Ouellet

Purchase applications improve 3.4%. Purchase applications improved for the first time in over a month, with the seasonally adjusted purchase index rising 3.4% in this morning’s release. This is an encouraging sign, in our view, that demand could be slowly … Continue reading →

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Posted in ***HOUSING WATCH, HOUSING, INTEREST RATES, MORTGAGES, US housing | Leave a comment

WHAT IS DR. COPPER THINKING?

Posted on July 21, 2010 by Denis Ouellet

o It is not that bonds and copper always have to sing from the same song sheet; they don’t have to. It just makes for an easier interpretation when they do. o The wider the gap between Treasuries, which portray … Continue reading →

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Posted in ***RECOVERY WATCH, COMMODITIES, ECONOMY, INTEREST RATES, bonds | Tagged | Leave a comment

Risks, Hedges and Opportunities: Oh Canada!

Posted on July 12, 2010 by Denis Ouellet

The IMF predicts that Canadian economic growth will increase at least 3.6% in 2010 and that is more than 0.5% from an April estimate of 3.1% compared to 1.0% for the Euro zone, 3.3% for the USA, 1.2% for Britain … Continue reading →

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Posted in CURRENCIES, Canada economy, ECONOMY, INTEREST RATES | Leave a comment

Risks, Hedges and Opportunities: Tug of Wars

Posted on July 5, 2010 by Denis Ouellet

The 10-year US Treasury Notes are yielding about 3.00% for the first time since April 2009. A decomposition of this yield reveals that expectation for inflation is running around 1.7%, for economic growth around 1.3% and for an overall GDP … Continue reading →

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Posted in ***CHINA WATCH, CURRENCIES, ECONOMY, INTEREST RATES, Risks, Hedges & Opp..., bonds | Leave a comment

The Bonds Bull Case

Posted on July 1, 2010 by Denis Ouellet

David Rosenberg: We took a closer look at what’s behind the 0.9% core CPI rate. Core goods (commodities excluding food and energy) is running at 1.1% while core services (services less energy) is running at 0.9%. It struck us that … Continue reading →

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Posted in INFLATION/DEFLATION, INTEREST RATES, bonds | Leave a comment

Tony Boeckh: Still Positive on Risk Assets

Posted on June 30, 2010 by Denis Ouellet

Tony Boeckh: The recovery is intact, but will slow significantly and remain uneven, with risks to the downside. with so many G20 countries with unsustainable fiscal positions, the risk of contagion is high. this is an untested economic environment with … Continue reading →

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Posted in COMMODITIES, CURRENCIES, Chinese Equities, ECONOMY, EQUITIES, Emerging Markets, GOLD, INFLATION/DEFLATION, INTEREST RATES, INVESTING, Natural Gas, Oil, Tony Boeckh, US equities, bonds | Leave a comment

Gold vs. Goldilocks

Posted on June 30, 2010 by Denis Ouellet

Deflation protection is becoming a more pressing strategy. With interest rates near zero, central bankers have much less ammo to fight deflation. Markets seem to want it both ways. The yield on 10-year Treasurys pushed below 3% Tuesday. At the … Continue reading →

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Posted in GOLD, INFLATION/DEFLATION, INTEREST RATES, bonds | Leave a comment

THE US INTRACTABLE FISCAL PROBLEM

Posted on June 19, 2010 by Denis Ouellet

David Rosenberg hits again, and rightly so, on the debt wall the US is about to collide on. Reinhart and Rogoff have documented the impact of high debt/GDP on economic growth (thanks Tony), concluding that the relationship between government debt … Continue reading →

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Posted in ECONOMY, FISCAL STIM./DEF., INTEREST RATES, US economy, bonds | Leave a comment

Greenspan: U.S. Debt and the Greece Analogy

Posted on June 18, 2010 by Denis Ouellet

Don’t be fooled by today’s low interest rates. The government could very quickly discover the limits of its borrowing capacity. (…)  Federal debt to the public rose to 59% of GDP by mid-June 2010 from 38% in September 2008. How … Continue reading →

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Posted in ANALYSIS, CREDIT, CURRENCIES, ECONOMY, FISCAL STIM./DEF., GOLD, INTEREST RATES, US economy | Leave a comment

OECD Debt To GDP to Exceed 100% in 2011

Posted on June 16, 2010 by Denis Ouellet

Really frightening! From Gluskin Sheff’s David Rosenberg. For the entire OECD countries, general government debt as a share of GDP alone has ballooned from 73% when the recession started in 2007 and will climb to a record 104% next year. … Continue reading →

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Posted in CREDIT, DELEVERAGING, ECONOMY, FISCAL STIM./DEF., INFLATION/DEFLATION, INTEREST RATES, bonds | Leave a comment