Category Archives: INFLATION/DEFLATION

EUROZONE AUGUST INFLATION RATE SEEN AT 1.6%

Posted on August 31, 2010 by Denis Ouellet

Euro area annual inflation is expected to be 1.6% in August 2010 according to a flash estimate issued by Eurostat. It was 1.7% in July. The flash estimation procedure for the MUICP combines historical information with partial information on price … Continue reading →

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TONY BOECKH: INCREASING RISKS

Posted on August 27, 2010 by Denis Ouellet

Tony Boeckh is also getting more cautious on risk assets: A double-dip U.S. recession is still not a done deal but forces are all on the side of economic weakness and deflation, and a double-dip recession next year carries a … Continue reading →

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Posted in CONTRIBUTORS, Chinese Equities, ECONOMY, EQUITIES, FISCAL STIM./DEF., GOLD, INFLATION/DEFLATION, INTEREST RATES, INVESTING, Oil, Tony Boeckh, US equities, bonds | Leave a comment

GAVYN DAVIES: Limbo Land of Zero Inflation

Posted on August 19, 2010 by Denis Ouellet

(…) Some interesting new evidence from the IMF suggests that while outright deflation might be avoided, at least for a time, the developed economies could soon get stuck in a kind of limbo land, with inflation remaining unhealthily close to … Continue reading →

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US CPI +0.3% IN JULY, CORE +0.2%

Posted on August 14, 2010 by Denis Ouellet

The July Consumer Price Index increased 0.3% (1.3% y/y) following three consecutive months of slight decline. During the first seven months of this year prices rose at a 0.3% annual rate. A 2.6% rise in energy prices reversed the June … Continue reading →

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Third Quarter 2010 Survey of Professional Forecasters

Posted on August 13, 2010 by Denis Ouellet

The most recent consensus among 36 professional forecasters. Not that it represents the most likely outcome…Of note, the deflation scenario remains very unpopular. The risk of a negative quarter in Q3 and Q4 2010 has increased from 10-12% to 14-17%. … Continue reading →

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Posted in ECONOMY, INFLATION/DEFLATION, US economy | Tagged | Leave a comment

China’s CPI up 3.3% in July, PPI growth slows

Posted on August 11, 2010 by Denis Ouellet

China’s consumer price index (CPI), one of the main gauges of inflation, rose to its highest level this year boosted by rising food prices. The CPI gained 3.3 percent in July from a year earlier, 0.4 percentage points higher than … Continue reading →

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Understanding the Risk of Deflation

Posted on August 5, 2010 by Denis Ouellet

Wells Fargo economists just published an excellent piece on deflation. Some excerpts: (…) The risks of a destabilizing deflation, while still relatively low, have increased and will likely increase further during the second half of this year, when economic growth … Continue reading →

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EUROZONE INFLATION AT 1.7% IN JULY

Posted on July 31, 2010 by Denis Ouellet

Euro area annual inflation is expected to be 1.7% in July 2010 according to a flash estimate issued by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. It was 1.4% in June. The annual inflation rate in the region rose … Continue reading →

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US GDP REVISIONS MEAN FASTER CONSUMER DELEVERAGING AND LOW INFLATION

Posted on July 30, 2010 by Denis Ouellet

The U.S. economy increased 2.4% in the second quarter, slightly below market expectations. Q2 delivered slower GDP growth compared to Q1 but with a marked acceleration in real domestic demand from 1.3% to 4.1%. We prefer to see a weaker … Continue reading →

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Posted in ***RECOVERY WATCH, CONSUMER, ECONOMY, INFLATION/DEFLATION, US consumer, US economy | Leave a comment

Foxconn to hike prices to cover pay increase

Posted on July 22, 2010 by Denis Ouellet

Foxconn Technology Group, which makes iPhones and other gadgets for global technology companies, is seeking to charge its customers more to partly cover wage increases at its mammoth manufacturing compound in southern China. The extent of price hikes will differ … Continue reading →

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Posted in ***CHINA WATCH, China Inflation/Deflation, China economy, China employment, ECONOMY, EMPLOYMENT, INFLATION/DEFLATION | Leave a comment

QUICK READS

Posted on July 22, 2010 by Denis Ouellet

Senate Approves Jobless-Benefits Bill The Senate voted to approve an extension of U.S. jobless benefits through November, providing a four-month lifeline to long-term unemployed Americans unable to find work. (WSJ) Brazil raises interest rates to 10.75% Rise in key Selic … Continue reading →

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Posted in ***HOUSING WATCH, HOUSING, INFLATION/DEFLATION, US housing | Leave a comment

NABE SURVEY POSITIVE ON JOBS

Posted on July 21, 2010 by Denis Ouellet

“The National Association for Business Economics’ July 2010 Industry Survey confirms that the U.S. recovery continued through the second quarter, although at a slower pace than earlier in the year,” said William Strauss, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. “Industry demand … Continue reading →

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Posted in ***RECOVERY WATCH, ECONOMY, EMPLOYMENT, INFLATION/DEFLATION, US Employment, US economy | Leave a comment