Category Archives: US economy

FROM DOUBLE DIP TO MUDDLING THROUGH

Muddling through is my scenario since early July. David Rosenberg has upgraded his double dip scenario, for now… The (employment) data are hardly strong but admittedly are not consistent with the economy contracting this quarter. But the data do not … Continue reading

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Posted in ***RECOVERY WATCH, ECONOMY, EMPLOYMENT, US Employment, US economy | Leave a comment
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GOOD US AUGUST EMPLOYMENT DATA

Private household employment jumped 891,000 in August, the biggest increase in 10 years. Over the past 8 months, private household employment has increased 2.3 million jobs, 3.3% annualized. Household employment tends to lead payroll employment which has gained only 763,000 … Continue reading

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Posted in ***CONSUMER WATCH, ***RECOVERY WATCH, ECONOMY, EMPLOYMENT, US Employment, US economy | Leave a comment

Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index

Back to neutral on the basis of the most recent data. The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti business conditions index is designed to track real business conditions at high frequency. Its underlying economic indicators (weekly initial jobless claims; monthly payroll employment, industrial production, personal … Continue reading

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OBAMA CONSIDERS BUSINESS TAX BREAKS

A pure and simple cut in corporate tax rates would be much better. See THE URGENT NEED TO CUT US COPORATE TAX RATES (II) With just two months until the November elections, the White House is seriously weighing a package … Continue reading

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Posted in ECONOMY, TAXES, US economy | Leave a comment

Q4 US VEHICLE PRODUCTION TO DECLINE 21%

After a scheduled 36% (annual rate) increase in Q3 2010 to 8.2 million units, Ward’s Automotive now forecasts that US vehicle production is scheduled to decline 21% (a.r.) to 7.7 million units in Q4. US vehicle sales have stalled below … Continue reading

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Global Manufacturers Still Manufacturing

There were some unexpected results in the August manufacturing PMI releases of both the good and bad variety. Some countries are slowing while others unexpectedly picked up. Bottom Line: Global manufacturing activity continued to expand as the summer drew to … Continue reading

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Posted in ***RECOVERY WATCH, Asia economy, China Manufacturing, China economy, ECONOMY, Europe Manufacturing, Europe economy, Japan economy, MANUFACTURING, UK economy, US economy | Leave a comment

US AUTO SALES DROP 5% JULY TO AUGUST

Auto makers sold 997,968 light vehicles in August, down from 1,262,197 a year earlier, according to Autodata Corp. The annualized selling pace for the month was 11.47 million vehicles, in line with the pace of the last five months but … Continue reading

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US AUGUST AUTO SALES LOOK VERY WEAK

More negative stuff on the US consumer. U.S. auto sales in August probably were the slowest for the month in 28 years as model-year closeout deals failed to entice consumers concerned the economy is worsening and they may lose their … Continue reading

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U.S. Consumers Pulling Back on Spending in August

Gallup spending scores for August confirm the weak back-to-school season. Americans’ self-reported spending in stores, restaurants, gas stations, and online averaged $61 per day during the week ending Aug. 29. So far, August and back-to-school 2010 spending trends appear no … Continue reading

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Posted in ***CONSUMER WATCH, ***RECOVERY WATCH, ECONOMY, RETAILING, US economy, USA retailing | Leave a comment

US CHAIN STORE SALES DOWN 0.8% IN AUGUST

US chain store sales edged up 0.1% for the week ended August 28, after falling 2.0% during the previous 4 weeks. The 4-week moving average is up 3.0% YoY. Poor back-to-school sales point to weak Christmas sales. Yesterday, NBF Financial … Continue reading

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US CONSUMER INCOME, SPENDING REMAIN WEAK IN JULY

Personal Income and Personal Disposable Income both increased 0.2 percent in July.Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased 0.4 percent.  Personal Income and PDI are both up 3.0% YoY as comps are somewhat easier. Transfer receipts, up 7.6% YoY, remain supportive. Consumer … Continue reading

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Posted in ***CONSUMER WATCH, ***RECOVERY WATCH, CONSUMER, ECONOMY, RETAILING, US consumer, US economy, USA retailing | Leave a comment

RISKS, HEDGES AND OPPORTUNITIES: once-in-a-lifetime opportunity?

Amid fresh reports of economic weakness in the housing, retail and manufacturing sectors and in the labour market, the complexion of the US economy has shifted toward the deflationist view of a long period of low inflation and low growth … Continue reading

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Posted in CONTRIBUTORS, ECONOMY, EQUITIES, Risks, Hedges & Opp..., US economy | Leave a comment