Chain store sales dipped 0.4% last week, a mild setback after the previous week’s 2.9% jump. The 4-week moving average climbed further, reaching its best level since last summer, breaking the 7-month downward trend.
Posted March 16th, 2010 by Denis Ouellet
Posted March 16th, 2010 by Denis Ouellet
US industrial production rose 0.1% in February after gains of 0.9% in January 0.5% in December.
Manufacturing production in February fell 0.2%, compared with a 0.9% increase in the month earlier. Production of autos and parts declined 4.4%, following a 4.4% increase in January. Output of business equipment was up 0.4% in February; output of machinery and construction supplies both increased 0.3%.
Breadth was good with sixty-percent of industries posting monthly output gains, holding near the 64% level versus six months ago.
Output of high-tech products like computers and semiconductors increased 1.2% in February and has increased 11.1% from a year ago.
Chart: Haver Analytics
Posted March 13th, 2010 by Denis Ouellet
Posted March 12th, 2010 by Denis Ouellet
Total US retail sales rose 0.3% in February, a pretty good gain given the very bad weather on the East Coast and poor auto sales. Still, total sales have been flattish at their 2-year average since November, rising only 0.3% during the last 3 months. February total sales are 3.5% above last year’s depressed level but remain 4.7% below their February 2008 level.
Posted March 9th, 2010 by Denis Ouellet
I read the NFIB survey results thinking that things were still not very difficult. National Banks Financial economists are seeing things with somewhat rosier glasses:
The rising tide in GDP is not lifting all boats equally. The small business optimism index (NFIB) decreased 1.3 points in February to 88.0. The biggest decline in the sub-components related to expectations about an improving economy. On the other hand, the biggest change in the positive direction was seen in earnings trends. Despite the decline in the headline number, we do not think there is a need to hit the panic button.
Posted March 5th, 2010 by Denis Ouellet
The BLS employment report surprised on the upside in February. Payroll jobs were down 36,000 on the month, but this outcome was much better than consensus expectations of a decline of 68,000 and our own estimate calling for a weather-related drop of 150,000. This outcome is all the more encouraging given that BLS counted a million workers who could not get to work during to work on the month. So what is the underlying trend in U.S. labour markets?
Posted March 4th, 2010 by Denis Ouellet
US personal income rose 0.1% in January, following average monthly gains of 0.33% in the previous 3 months. During the last 3 and 6 months, personal income growth hovers around 3.0% annualized. Year-over-year, personal income is up 1.1%, the first positive YoY growth rate since December 2008.
Posted March 4th, 2010 by Denis Ouellet
Only downbeat part is employment which contracted again in February.
The NMI (Non-Manufacturing Index) registered 53 percent in February, 2.5 percentage points higher than
the seasonally adjusted 50.5 percent registered in January, indicating growth in the non-manufacturing sector. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index increased 2.6 percentage points to 54.8 percent, reflecting growth for the third consecutive month. The New Orders Index increased 0.3 percentage point to 55 percent, and the Employment Index increased 4 percentage points to 48.6 percent. The Prices Index decreased 0.8 percentage point to 60.4 percent in February, indicating an increase in prices paid from January.
Posted March 2nd, 2010 by Denis Ouellet
Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in February for the seventh consecutive month, and the overall economy grew for the 10th consecutive month, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®.
Posted March 1st, 2010 by Denis Ouellet
(…) J.D. Power forecasts that auto makers sold about 741,500 cars and light trucks in February, compared to 688,244 in the same month a year ago. That translates into a seasonally adjusted annualized selling rate of 9.9 million vehicles. While that is up from the 9.1 million rate in February 2009, it is a considerable drop from January 2010, when the sales pace was 10.7 million vehicles.
