Category Archives: US economy

FROM DOUBLE DIP TO MUDDLING THROUGH

Posted on September 3, 2010 by Denis Ouellet

Muddling through is my scenario since early July. David Rosenberg has upgraded his double dip scenario, for now… The (employment) data are hardly strong but admittedly are not consistent with the economy contracting this quarter. But the data do not … Continue reading →

  • Share/Bookmark
Posted in ***RECOVERY WATCH, ECONOMY, EMPLOYMENT, US Employment, US economy | Leave a comment
4 Week Risk-Free Trial of Financial Times


GOOD US AUGUST EMPLOYMENT DATA

Posted on September 3, 2010 by Denis Ouellet

Private household employment jumped 891,000 in August, the biggest increase in 10 years. Over the past 8 months, private household employment has increased 2.3 million jobs, 3.3% annualized. Household employment tends to lead payroll employment which has gained only 763,000 … Continue reading →

  • Share/Bookmark
Posted in ***CONSUMER WATCH, ***RECOVERY WATCH, ECONOMY, EMPLOYMENT, US Employment, US economy | Leave a comment

Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index

Posted on September 3, 2010 by Denis Ouellet

Back to neutral on the basis of the most recent data. The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti business conditions index is designed to track real business conditions at high frequency. Its underlying economic indicators (weekly initial jobless claims; monthly payroll employment, industrial production, personal … Continue reading →

  • Share/Bookmark
Posted in ***RECOVERY WATCH, ECONOMY, LEADING ECON. INDIC., US economy | Leave a comment

OBAMA CONSIDERS BUSINESS TAX BREAKS

Posted on September 3, 2010 by Denis Ouellet

A pure and simple cut in corporate tax rates would be much better. See THE URGENT NEED TO CUT US COPORATE TAX RATES (II) With just two months until the November elections, the White House is seriously weighing a package … Continue reading →

  • Share/Bookmark
Posted in ECONOMY, TAXES, US economy | Leave a comment

Q4 US VEHICLE PRODUCTION TO DECLINE 21%

Posted on September 2, 2010 by Denis Ouellet

After a scheduled 36% (annual rate) increase in Q3 2010 to 8.2 million units, Ward’s Automotive now forecasts that US vehicle production is scheduled to decline 21% (a.r.) to 7.7 million units in Q4. US vehicle sales have stalled below … Continue reading →

  • Share/Bookmark
Posted in ***CONSUMER WATCH, ***RECOVERY WATCH, ECONOMY, US economy, automobiles | Leave a comment

Global Manufacturers Still Manufacturing

Posted on September 2, 2010 by Denis Ouellet

There were some unexpected results in the August manufacturing PMI releases of both the good and bad variety. Some countries are slowing while others unexpectedly picked up. Bottom Line: Global manufacturing activity continued to expand as the summer drew to … Continue reading →

  • Share/Bookmark
Posted in ***RECOVERY WATCH, Asia economy, China Manufacturing, China economy, ECONOMY, Europe Manufacturing, Europe economy, Japan economy, MANUFACTURING, UK economy, US economy | Leave a comment

US AUTO SALES DROP 5% JULY TO AUGUST

Posted on September 2, 2010 by Denis Ouellet

Auto makers sold 997,968 light vehicles in August, down from 1,262,197 a year earlier, according to Autodata Corp. The annualized selling pace for the month was 11.47 million vehicles, in line with the pace of the last five months but … Continue reading →

  • Share/Bookmark
Posted in ***CONSUMER WATCH, ***RECOVERY WATCH, ECONOMY, US economy, automobiles | Leave a comment

US AUGUST AUTO SALES LOOK VERY WEAK

Posted on August 31, 2010 by Denis Ouellet

More negative stuff on the US consumer. U.S. auto sales in August probably were the slowest for the month in 28 years as model-year closeout deals failed to entice consumers concerned the economy is worsening and they may lose their … Continue reading →

  • Share/Bookmark
Posted in ***CONSUMER WATCH, ***RECOVERY WATCH, ECONOMY, US economy, automobiles | Leave a comment

U.S. Consumers Pulling Back on Spending in August

Posted on August 31, 2010 by Denis Ouellet

Gallup spending scores for August confirm the weak back-to-school season. Americans’ self-reported spending in stores, restaurants, gas stations, and online averaged $61 per day during the week ending Aug. 29. So far, August and back-to-school 2010 spending trends appear no … Continue reading →

  • Share/Bookmark
Posted in ***CONSUMER WATCH, ***RECOVERY WATCH, ECONOMY, RETAILING, US economy, USA retailing | Leave a comment

US CHAIN STORE SALES DOWN 0.8% IN AUGUST

Posted on August 31, 2010 by Denis Ouellet

US chain store sales edged up 0.1% for the week ended August 28, after falling 2.0% during the previous 4 weeks. The 4-week moving average is up 3.0% YoY. Poor back-to-school sales point to weak Christmas sales. Yesterday, NBF Financial … Continue reading →

  • Share/Bookmark
Posted in ***CONSUMER WATCH, ***RECOVERY WATCH, ECONOMY, RETAILING, US economy, USA retailing | Leave a comment

US CONSUMER INCOME, SPENDING REMAIN WEAK IN JULY

Posted on August 30, 2010 by Denis Ouellet

Personal Income and Personal Disposable Income both increased 0.2 percent in July.Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased 0.4 percent.  Personal Income and PDI are both up 3.0% YoY as comps are somewhat easier. Transfer receipts, up 7.6% YoY, remain supportive. Consumer … Continue reading →

  • Share/Bookmark
Posted in ***CONSUMER WATCH, ***RECOVERY WATCH, CONSUMER, ECONOMY, RETAILING, US consumer, US economy, USA retailing | Leave a comment

RISKS, HEDGES AND OPPORTUNITIES: once-in-a-lifetime opportunity?

Posted on August 30, 2010 by Denis Ouellet

Amid fresh reports of economic weakness in the housing, retail and manufacturing sectors and in the labour market, the complexion of the US economy has shifted toward the deflationist view of a long period of low inflation and low growth … Continue reading →

  • Share/Bookmark
Posted in CONTRIBUTORS, ECONOMY, EQUITIES, Risks, Hedges & Opp..., US economy | Leave a comment