Category Archives: Risks, Hedges & Opp…

Hubert Marleau

RISKS, HEDGES AND OPPORTUNITIES: once-in-a-lifetime opportunity?

Posted on August 30, 2010 by Denis Ouellet

Amid fresh reports of economic weakness in the housing, retail and manufacturing sectors and in the labour market, the complexion of the US economy has shifted toward the deflationist view of a long period of low inflation and low growth … Continue reading →

  • Share/Bookmark
Posted in CONTRIBUTORS, ECONOMY, EQUITIES, Risks, Hedges & Opp..., US economy | Leave a comment
4 Week Risk-Free Trial of Financial Times


Risks, Hedges and Opportunities: Bonds Usually Get It Right

Posted on August 23, 2010 by Denis Ouellet

The marketplace for US treasury notes is the biggest, most liquid and best understood market in the world, and the market participants are highly sophisticated. Palos has developed a model showing that the US public debt market is usually correctly … Continue reading →

  • Share/Bookmark
Posted in CONTRIBUTORS, Risks, Hedges & Opp... | Leave a comment

Risks, Hedges and Opportunities: Equities More Appealing Than Bonds

Posted on August 16, 2010 by Denis Ouellet

If the Fed was to consider that the lack of viability of the twin US trade and budget deficits is making government spending dependant on the largess of Foreigners and the Federal Reserve’s, there would be no hesitated calculation that … Continue reading →

  • Share/Bookmark
Posted in CONTRIBUTORS, ECONOMY, EQUITIES, INTEREST RATES, Risks, Hedges & Opp..., US economy, US equities, bonds | Leave a comment

RISKS, HEDGES AND OPPORTUNITIES: GOLD

Posted on August 11, 2010 by Denis Ouellet

The gold market has been on a tear since 2002, shooting up some fivefold to close at the very near high of $1200 an ounce on Friday last. Gold has a large fan club for it has earned the respect … Continue reading →

  • Share/Bookmark
Posted in CONTRIBUTORS, GOLD, Risks, Hedges & Opp... | Leave a comment

Risks, Hedges and Opportunities: Oil

Posted on August 2, 2010 by Denis Ouellet

There is ample empirical evidence and theoretical validity that futures can capture market expectations and , in turn, can be used to predict spot price movements. A commodity is immediately available at the spot price and for forward dates at … Continue reading →

  • Share/Bookmark
Posted in CONTRIBUTORS, ENERGY, Oil, Risks, Hedges & Opp... | Leave a comment

Risks, Hedges and Opportunities: Stressing on Stress Tests

Posted on July 19, 2010 by Denis Ouellet

The lifting of two important issues hanging over the market like the new reforms ruling Wall Street and the regulatory settlement against Goldman Sachs did very little to change the negative market sentiment of last Friday. One would think that … Continue reading →

  • Share/Bookmark
Posted in BANKS, CONTRIBUTORS, EQUITIES, Risks, Hedges & Opp... | Leave a comment

Risks, Hedges and Opportunities: Tug of Wars

Posted on July 5, 2010 by Denis Ouellet

The 10-year US Treasury Notes are yielding about 3.00% for the first time since April 2009. A decomposition of this yield reveals that expectation for inflation is running around 1.7%, for economic growth around 1.3% and for an overall GDP … Continue reading →

  • Share/Bookmark
Posted in ***CHINA WATCH, CURRENCIES, ECONOMY, INTEREST RATES, Risks, Hedges & Opp..., bonds | Leave a comment

Risks, Hedges and Opportunities: The Yuan

Posted on June 29, 2010 by Denis Ouellet

Under hard and relentless US pressure and soft but frequent international resentment, the People’s Bank of China announced that it was removing the Yuan peg to the US dollar. The move is considered: 1) sharp – because it surprised the … Continue reading →

  • Share/Bookmark
Posted in CURRENCIES, Risks, Hedges & Opp... | Leave a comment

Risks, Hedges and Opportunities: The Euro is Not Dead

Posted on June 21, 2010 by Denis Ouellet

I am concerned about Europe, but not any more than I am concerned about the US. The two continents have regrettably fostered a sense of complacency that is carrying dire consequences for both. While I do not wish to underestimate … Continue reading →

  • Share/Bookmark
Posted in CONTRIBUTORS, CURRENCIES, Europe economy, Risks, Hedges & Opp... | Leave a comment

Risks, Hedges and Opportunities: Going Offense

Posted on May 31, 2010 by Denis Ouellet

Extraordinary volatility makes it impossible to forecast the short term direction of the stock and bond markets. However, market participants should not despair. Firstly, frequent daily ups and downs can create speculative opportunities and, in turn, good for traders. Secondly, … Continue reading →

  • Share/Bookmark
Posted in EQUITIES, Risks, Hedges & Opp..., US equities | Leave a comment

Risks, Hedges and Opportunities

Posted on May 10, 2010 by Denis Ouellet

Last Thursday was the craziest trading day since the day that the stock market crashed in September of 1987 because of program trades. In our judgment and that of others, there were no fundamental reasons for the stock market to … Continue reading →

  • Share/Bookmark
Posted in Risks, Hedges & Opp... | Leave a comment

Risks, Hedges and Opportunities. On Goldman and the C$

Posted on April 19, 2010 by Denis Ouellet

When the public is angry, it usually loves to fabricate conspiracy theories that can point to an offender which can be blamed to have single-handedly caused a crisis. Fuelled by public sentiment and driven by political pressure, government will find … Continue reading →

  • Share/Bookmark
Posted in CURRENCIES, Risks, Hedges & Opp... | Tagged | Leave a comment