NEW$ TO U(SE)

I wrote about the apparent recovery in RV demand in December. A turn in final demand may just be happening.

Winnebago Industries (WGO-N13.68-0.87-5.98%) posted its first quarterly profit in nearly two years as sales of its largest and most expensive motorhomes rebounded modestly, and its shares rose nearly 7 per cent.(…)

Winnebago said it was seeing renewed dealer demand for all its vehicles, but the resurgence was particularly pronounced for so-called “Class A” motorhomes – the biggest and most lucrative of its products.

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A rise in U.S. car sales during the first half of March is lifting expectations that totals for the month will show the industry’s recovery is picking up speed. (…)

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Chain store sales dipped 0.4% last week, a mild setback after the previous week’s 2.9% jump. The 4-week moving average climbed further, reaching its best level since last summer, breaking the 7-month downward trend.

Total US retail sales rose 0.3% in February, a pretty good gain given the very bad weather on the East Coast and poor auto sales. Still, total sales have been flattish at their 2-year average since November, rising only 0.3% during the last 3 months. February total sales are 3.5% above last year’s depressed level but remain 4.7% below their February 2008 level.

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Chain store sales surged 2.9% last week. Recent volatility has been very high but the upward trend is good to see.

The 4-week moving average has yet to break on the upside however. Trailing 4-week sales are 1.2% below their recent high (August 2009) and only 1.1% higher than last year’s depressed level.

US personal income rose 0.1% in January, following average monthly gains of 0.33% in the previous 3 months. During the last 3 and 6 months, personal income growth hovers around 3.0% annualized. Year-over-year, personal income is up 1.1%, the first positive YoY growth rate since December 2008.

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But they are down 0.9% year-to-date. The trailing 4-week sales are up only 0.7% from last year’s depressed level.

A wave of disappointing economic news is beginning to hit. We have been warning for quite some time that the February blizzards would depress activity during that month. Even the consumers’ mood was impacted by the weather. According to the Conference Board, the index of consumer confidence fell more than 10 points in February, the worst decline in a year.  Why is the impact so large?

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ICSC reports that US chain store sales declined 1.6% last week (ended Feb 13). Trailing 4-week sales have declined 1.8% and are only 0.8% above last year’s depressed level.

Here is the WSJ summary:

(…) Retail sales last month increased 0.5%, the Commerce Department said Friday. (…)

Aside from the surprisingly strong increase in January, the report showed December retail sales were adjusted upward, to a 0.1% decrease from a previously reported 0.3% decline.

Excluding the car sector, which was flat in January, all other retail sales rose 0.6%, in line with expectations. Ex-auto sales in December fell 0.2%.

Some economists now see Q1 consumer spending at 3.0% and GDP at 3.5%.

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