NEW$ & VIEW$ (3 FEBRUARY 2014)

Slow Income Growth Lurks as Threat to Consumer Spending A slowdown in U.S. income growth could short-circuit the surge in consumer spending that propelled the economic recovery in recent months.

As the holiday shopping season wrapped up, personal consumption rose a seasonally adjusted 0.4% in December from a month earlier, the Commerce Department said Friday. With a 0.6% increase in November, the final two months of 2013 marked the strongest consecutive gains since early 2012.

The upturn came while incomes were flat during the month. Real disposable income, which accounts for taxes and inflation, advanced just 0.7% during 2013. That was the weakest growth since the recession ended in 2009. (…)

Across 2013, the Commerce Department’s broad measure of spending on everything from haircuts to refrigerators was up 3.1% from the prior year. That was the weakest annual increase since 2009 and below the 4.1% growth seen in 2012.

But the pace of spending was substantially stronger in the final six months of last year. Economic growth in the second half of 2013 represented the best finish to a year in a decade. Consumer spending, which makes up more than two-thirds of the nation’s gross domestic product, was the primary driver. (…)

The personal saving rate fell to 3.9% in December from 4.3% in November. (…)

Friday’s report showed subdued inflation across the economy. The price index for personal consumption expenditures—the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge—rose 1.1% in December from a year earlier. While the strongest since August, the figure remains well below the central bank’s 2% inflation target. (…)

A separate Labor Department report Friday said employment costs in the last three months of 2013 were 2% higher than a year ago. Annual cost increases typically exceeded 3% before the 2007-09 downturn wiped out millions of jobs. (…) (Chart and table from Haver Analytics)

Try to see anything positive from the table. I suspect that spending data for the last few months of 2013 will be revised lower in coming months. In any event, the income side is desperately weak.imageLast 3 months of 2013:

  • Personal Income: +0.1%
  • Disposable Income: –0.2%
  • Real Disposable Income: –0.3%
  • Consumption Expenditures: +1.1%
  • Real Expenditures: +0.9%

Bloomberg Orange Book comments from retailers about January performances were mostly negative and suggest future weakness. Wal-Mart pared its sales forecast based on curtailment of the food stamp benefit program and other specialty apparel retailers issued statements of concern. (BloombergBriefs)

Makes you wonder about this Bloomberg article: Global Earnings Are Poised to Accelerate in 2014 as U.S. Consumers Spend More

Meanwhile:

China’s Manufacturing Activity Slows

The official manufacturing PMI fell to 50.5 in January, from 51.0 in December, the federation said. The January PMI was in line with the median forecast by economists in a Wall Street Journal poll. (…)

The new orders subindex dropped to 50.9 in January from 52.0 in December, and the subindex measuring new export orders declined to 49.3 from 49.8, the statement said.

The employment subindex dropped to 48.2 from 48.7, while the output subindex fell to 53.0 from 53.9. Mr. Zhang said the fall in the new orders subindex shows weakness in domestic demand.

The subindex measuring the operation of large firms of the official PMI, heavily weighted towards larger state-owned enterprises, dropped to 51.4 from 52.0, while the one measuring smaller firms fell to 47.1 from 47.7. (…)

The HSBC China Manufacturing PMI, which is tilted toward smaller companies, fell to a final reading of 49.5 in January from 50.5 in December, HSBC said Thursday.

In another sign of slower momentum among factory owners, profit at major Chinese industrial enterprises grew at a slower pace, expanding by 6% in December from the same month a year earlier to 942.53 billion yuan ($155.6 billion), a reduction from November’s 9.7% increase, official data released earlier in the week showed

Moscow casts doubt over Russian growth
GDP rose 1.3% in 2013 just missing government forecasts

Gross domestic product increased by 1.3 per cent in 2013, narrowly missing the government’s most recent forecast of 1.4 per cent, the Federal Statistics Service in its preliminary GDP estimate said on Friday. (…)

The economy ministry said while the economy was past its lowest point, it was unclear whether it could grow by 2.5 per cent this year as forecast earlier. Most banks and independent economists are more pessimistic than the government and estimate growth this year to stay well below 2 per cent. (…)

“In the first quarter, we expect growth on a level around 1 per cent. In the second quarter, growth will be higher, probably somewhere around 2 per cent or 1.5 per cent,” Andrei Klepach, Mr Ulyukayev’s deputy, said in remarks carried by Russian news agencies. “We can stick to our forecast of 2.5 per cent, although it is possible, if you take the current trends, that growth might be lower.”

However, the decline of the rouble, which has fallen to its lowest against the dollar in five years amid the recent emerging markets currency jitters, could alter that calculation, as a weaker currency makes its exports more competitive.

“In our view, a lower rouble rate is better for economic growth,” said Mr Klepach. “But it would be worse for both growth and inflation if there were bigger volatility.”

In a survey published last week, MNI, an affiliate of Deutsche, said the weakening rouble was helping Russian businesses and respondents were the most positive on exchange rate conditions in January since the survey began last March.

Materially Slower Spending Growth by Emerging Market Countries Will Be Felt

Emerging market economies are of increasing importance to mature economies, such as the US. For example, the share of US merchandise exports shipped to emerging markets has risen from 2003’s 44% to 2013’s prospective 55% of US merchandise exports. During the first 11 months of 2013, US exports to emerging markets grew by 4.6% annually, which compared most favorably to the -0.5% dip by exports to advanced economies.

image

The faster growth of US exports to emerging markets is consistent with 2013’s much faster 4.7% growth of the emerging market economies compared to the accompanying 1.3% growth of advanced economies. Moreover, this phenomenon is hardly new according to how the emerging markets outran mature economies for a 14th straight year in 2013. Since year-end 1999, the average annualized rates of real economic growth were 6.1% for the emerging markets and a sluggish 1.8% for the advanced economies. By contrast, during the 14-years-ended 1999, the 3.7% average annual growth rate of the emerging markets was much closer to the comparably measured 3.1% growth of the advanced economies. (Figure 1.)

imageEmerging markets are acutely sensitive to industrial commodity prices
Emerging market economies can suffer to the degree major central banks succeed at curbing product price inflation. Though it’s difficult to separate the chain of causation, the 0.74 correlation between the growth of Moody’s industrial metals price index and emerging market country economic growth is much stronger than the price index’s 0.28 correlation with the growth of advanced economies. In fact, the 0.74 correlation of emerging market country growth and the base metals price index is far stronger than the 0.19 correlation between the growth rates of emerging market and advanced economies.
According to the above approach, the percent change of Moody’s industrial metals price index is relative to the price index’s average of the previous three years. The recent industrial metals price index trailed its average of the previous three years by -8%. (Figure 2.)

The latest decline by industrial metals prices suggests that the emerging market economies will grow by less than the 5.1%, which the IMF recently projected for 2014. When the aforementioned version of the percent change for the industrial metals price index is above its 8.3% median of the last 34 years, the median yearly increase by emerging market economic growth is 5.9%. By contrast, when the base metals price index grows by less than 8.3% annually, the median annual increase for emerging market growth drops to 3.7%. (Moody’s)

As U.S. debates oil exports, long-term prices slump below $80 Long-term U.S. oil prices have slumped to record discounts versus Europe’s benchmark Brent, with some contracts dropping below $80 in a dramatic downturn that may intensify producers’ calls to ease a crude export ban.

imageOil for delivery in December 2016 has tumbled $3.50 a barrel in the first two weeks of the year, trading at just $79.45 on Friday afternoon, its lowest price since 2009. That is an unusually abrupt move for longer-dated contracts that are typically much less volatile than prompt crude. For most of last year, the contract traded in a narrow range on either side of $84 a barrel.

The shift in prices on either side of the Atlantic is even more dramatic further down the curve, with December 2019 U.S. crude now trading at a record discount versus the equivalent European Brent contract. The spread has doubled this month to nearly $15 a barrel, data show.

The drop in so-called “long-dated” U.S. oil futures extends a broad decline that has pushed prices as much as $15 lower in two years. It also coincided with an abrupt drop in near-term futures, which fell by nearly $9 a barrel in the opening weeks of 2014 amid signs of improving supply from Libya.

But while immediate prices have rebounded swiftly thanks to strong demand amid frigid winter weather and new pipelines that may drain Midwest stockpiles, longer-term contracts have not.

The unusual speed, severity and persistence of the decline has mystified many in the oil industry. Brokers, analysts and bankers have offered a range of possible explanations: a big one-off options trade in the Brent market; new-year hedging by U.S. oil producers; liquidation by bespoke fund investors; or even long-term speculation on a deepening domestic glut.

Regardless of the trigger, however, it may be cause for growing alarm for crude oil producers, who are increasingly concerned that falling prices will crimp profit margins if U.S. export constraints are not eased. Producers say this would hand over some of their rightful profits to refiners who can freely export gasoline and diesel at world prices. (…)

EARNINGS WATCH

Amid all the EM turmoil and the barometers of all kinds, let’s pause for a moment to take a look at the main ingredient, half way into the earnings season.

  • Factset provides its usual good rundown:

With 50% of the companies in the S&P 500 reporting actual results, the percentages of companies reporting earnings and sales above estimates are above the four-year averages.

imageOverall, 251 companies have reported earnings to date for the fourth quarter. Of these 251 companies, 74% have reported actual EPS above the mean EPS estimate and 26% have reported actual EPS below the mean EPS estimate. The percentage of companies reporting EPS above the mean EPS estimate is
above the 1-year (71%) average and the 4-year (73%) average.

In aggregate, companies are reporting earnings that are 3.6% above expectations. This surprise percentage is above the 1-year (3.3%) average but below the 4-year (5.8%) average.

The blended earnings growth rate for the fourth quarter is 7.9% this week, above last week’s blended earnings growth rate of 6.3%. Upside earnings surprises reported by companies in multiple sectors were responsible for the increase in the overall earnings growth rate this week. Eight of the ten sectors recorded an increase in earnings growth rates during the week, led by the Materials sector.

The Financials sector has the highest earnings growth rate (23.7%) of all ten sectors. It is also the largest contributor to earnings growth for the entire index. If the Financials sector is excluded, the earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 falls to 4.9%.

In terms of revenues, 67% of companies have reported actual sales above estimated sales and 33% have reported actual sales below estimated sales. The percentage of companies reporting sales above estimates is above the average percentage recorded over the last four quarters (54%) and above the average percentage recorded over the previous four years (59%).

In aggregate, companies are reporting sales that are 0.1% below expectations. This percentage is below the 1-year (0.4%) average and below the 4-year (0.6%) average.

The blended revenue growth rate for Q4 2013 is 0.8%, above the growth rate of 0.3% at the end of the quarter (December 31). Eight of the ten sectors are reporting revenue growth for the quarter, led by the Health Care and Information Technology sectors. The Financials sector is reporting the lowest revenue growth for the quarter.

At this point in time, 54 companies in the index have issued EPS guidance for the first quarter. Of these 54 companies, 44 have issued negative EPS guidance and 10 have issued positive EPS guidance. Thus, the percentage of companies issuing negative EPS guidance to date for the first quarter is 81% (44 out of 54). This percentage is above the 5-year average of 64%, but slightly below the percentage at this same point in time for Q4 2013 (84%).

image

For Q1 2014, analysts are expecting earnings growth of 2.2%. However, earnings growth is projected to improve in each subsequent quarter for the remainder of the year. For Q2 2014, Q3 2014, and Q4 2014, analysts are predicting earnings growth rates of 8.5%, 12.4%, and 11.9%. For all of 2014, the projected earnings growth rate is 9.6%.

Note that the 2.2% growth rate expected for Q1’14 is down from 4.3% on Dec. 31. The 9.6% growth rate for all of 2014 is down from 10.6% on Dec. 31.

Pointing up Data can vary depending on which aggregator one uses. Factset’s reports are the most complete but the official data still come from S&P.

  • Half way into the season, S&P’s tally shows a 69% beat rate and a 20% miss rate.

Importantly, Q4’13 estimates rose from $28.77 On Jan. 23 to $29.23 on Jan. 30. S&P also detailed the impact of two large pension adjustments at AT&T and Verizon: their gains added $0.94 to the Q4’13 operating EPS while they cost the Index $1.26 in Q4’12. Taking these out, just for growth calculation, Q4’14 EPS would be up 16% YoY if the remaining 250 companies meet estimates, up from +12.2% in Q3 and +3.7% in Q2. The economic acceleration is thus translating into faster profit growth and still rising margins.

We should keep in mind, however, that easy comparisons account for a big part of the strong earnings growth. Comparisons are particularly easy for three companies – Bank of America, Verizon, and Travelers. Exclude these three companies and total earnings growth for the S&P 500 companies that have reported drops to +6% from +12.0%.

Nonetheless, Zack acknowledges that if remaining companies meet estimates

Total earnings in Q4 would be up +9.6% on +0.7% higher revenues and 79 basis points higher margins. This is a much better earnings growth picture at this stage of the reporting cycle than we have seen in recent quarters. In fact, +9.6% growth is the highest quarterly earnings growth rate of 2013.

Zacks provides another useful peek at earnings trends with actual dollar earnings instead of per share earnings.

image

Trailing 12m EPS are now seen reaching $108.28 after Q4’13 (+5.9% QoQ) and $110.64 after Q1’14, assuming Q1 estimates of $28.13 (+9.2%) are met. They have been shaved 0.6% in the last week.

  • The Rule of 20 P/E barometer, a far more useful barometer than the January barometer, has retreated back into the “lower risk” area at 18.2x, down from 19.7x in December 2013. This is the third time in this bull market that the Rule of 20 P/E (actual P/E on trailing EPS + inflation) has refused to cross the “20 fair value” line after a rising run, a rare phenomenon that last occurred in the early 1960s. image

In all the media frenzy about the recent equity markets setbacks, the U.S. earnings trend should take center stage. Rising earnings remain the main fuel for bull markets, over and above QEs of all kinds. Notice the sharp uptrend yellow line in the chart above. This line plots where the fair value of the S&P 500 Index based on the Rule of 20. In effect, it is derived from multiplying trailing 12m EPS by (20 minus inflation) or 18.3 at present using core CPI. It is the difference between the yellow line and the actual S&P 500 Index (blue line) that is measured by the thick black line (actual P/E + inflation).

Deep undervaluation is reached when the thick black line, the Rule of 20 barometer, is below 17.5 (historical lows around 15). Extrapolating 3 months down with trailing EPS at $110.64, the Rule of 20 P/E would be 17.8x if the Index remains at 1782 and inflation is stable at 1.7%. This would dictate a fair value of 2025 on the Index, +13.6% from current levels. On the other side, a decline in the Rule of 20 P/E to the 15-16x range would take the Index down 11-17% to 1470-1580. Taking the mid-point downside risk of 14%, the upside/downside is nearly identical, not a compelling risk/reward ratio to increase equity exposure just yet.

The S&P 500 Index is now sitting on its 100 day m.a.. It has held there four times since June 2013. The 200 day m.a. is at 1705 and is still rising. At 1700, the Rule of 20 P/E would be 17.1x. At that point, upside to fair value would be 19% and downside to the 15.5x level would be 10%. Unless the economic picture, or inflation, change markedly between now and the end of April, I consider the 200 day m.a. to be the worst case scenario in the market turmoil.

Eurozone Bank Earnings Weigh On Stocks

Banks saw the heaviest losses, with poorly-received updates from Lloyds Banking Group andJulius Baer dragging on the sector.

Data showing a faster-than-expected expansion in euro-zone manufacturing in January did little to lighten the mood, as investors focused on the latest disappointments in a downbeat earnings season.

SENTIMENT WATCH

Not since the early summer of that year has the S&P 500 experienced a standard correction of at least 10 per cent. This type of pullback, like a gardener pruning roses in late winter in order to encourage healthy growth in the spring, is what many professional investors would like to see this year.Red rose (…)

Surprised smile Alhambra Investment Partners this week said not only has margin debt hit a record, there has been a massive rise in overall leverage. (…) The firm estimates that total margin debt usage last year jumped by an almost incomprehensible $123bn, while cash balances declined by $19bn. “This $142bn leveraged bet on stocks surpasses any 12-month period in history.” (…)

A torrent of margin calls and larger ETF outflows can easily feed on itself and may well prompt a far stronger corrective slide in stocks than investors expect. Wilted rose

 Ghost Trader’s Almanac –  every down January on the S&P 500 since 1938, without exception, has preceded a new or extended bear market, a 10% correction, or a flat year.

  • Fingers crossed Most Expect Stock Turmoil to Pass A spate of bumpy, uncertain trading has knocked the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 5.3% from its Dec. 31 record. It is threatening to hang around for a while, many money managers say. The big question is how much worse it could get. The widespread belief is, not much.

    Get used to it.

    A spate of bumpy, uncertain trading has knocked the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 5.3% from its Dec. 31 record. It is threatening to hang around for a while, many money managers say. The big question is how much worse it could get.

There is just about everything in this last WSJ piece…and just about nothing with any substance.

ANOTHER BAROMETER…

If you are of the statistical type, you should buy the Stock Trader’s Almanac and drown yourself in numbers and, often, stupidity. Here’s the Decennial Cycle from Lance Roberts, to help you keep the faith ;

There is another piece of historical statistical data that supports the idea of a market “melt up” before the next big correction in 2016 which is the decennial cycle. 

The decennial cycle, or decennial pattern as it is sometimes referred to, is an important one. It takes into account the stock market performance in years ending in 1,2,3 etc. In other words, since we just finished up 2013 that was the third year of this decade. This is shown in the table below.

decennial-cycle-011414

This year, 2014, represents the fourth year of the current decade and has a decent track record. The markets have been positive 12 out of 18 times in the 4th year of the decade with an average return for the Dow Jones Industrial Average since 1835 of 5.08%. Therefore, there is a 66% probability that the end will end positively; however, that does not exclude the possibility of a sharp dip somewhere along the way.

Open-mouthed smile However, looking ahead to 2015 is where things get interesting.  The decennial pattern is certainly suggesting that we take advantage of any major correction in 2014 to do some buying ahead of 2015.  As shown in the chart above, there is a very high probability (83%) that the 5th year of the decade will be positive with an average historical return of 21.47%. 

The return of the positive years is also quite amazing with 10 out of the 15 positive 5th years (66%) rising 20% or more.  However, 2015 will also likely mark the peak of the cyclical bull market as economic tailwinds fade and the reality of an excessively stretched valuation and price metrics become a major issue.

As you will notice, returns in the 6th and 7th years (2016-17) become substantially worse with a potential of negative return years rising.  The chart below shows the win/loss ratio of each year of the decennial cycle.

Decennial-cycle-011414-2

AND MORE ON THE JANUARY BAROMETER

OK, this will be the end of it. Promise. But I thought it was relevant and, I must admit, a little interesting. Cyniconomics introduces the “JAJO EFFECT”:

Our argument begins with four observations (we’ll get to theories in a moment):

  1. Market sentiment often changes during the earnings reporting season – in which most of the action occurs in the first month of the quarter – and these sentiment shifts tend to persist.
  2. Individual investors tend to pay extra attention to their positions early in a quarter, reacting to the past quarter’s results and then looking ahead to the next performance period.
  3. Professional money managers often refine their strategies prior to client reviews or board meetings, which typically occur after results for the prior quarter become available.
  4. Investors (individuals and professionals) are even more likely to rethink strategy in January, partly because it marks a new annual reporting period but also because it tends to be a time for planning and reflection. (How are you doing on those resolutions, by the way?)

These observations are admittedly vague, but we suspect they’re relevant to stock performance. They suggest that the first month of a quarter may set the market’s tone in subsequent months. In the context of today’s markets, they tie into a few questions you may be asking about early 2014 volatility:  Is January’s market drop merely noise on the way to another string of all-time highs, or is there more to it than that? For instance, doesn’t it seem a little ominous that we stumbled out of the gates this year despite sentiment being rampantly bullish? Does this tell us to be cautious going forward?

If you happen to read the Stock Trader’s Almanac, you’ll connect our questions to the “January barometer” (…). The Almanac’s founder, Yale Hirsch, coined the term in 1972 when he presented research showing that January’s return is a decent predictor of full-year returns. He concluded: “As January goes, so goes the year.”

We’ll take a closer look at the January barometer below, while testing two variations drawn from the observations above.

“Downsizing” the January barometer

First, we doubt that any carryover of January’s performance is likely to persist for an entire calendar year. Based on the idea that quarterly reporting cycles may have something to do with these types of anomalies, it doesn’t seem right to think that January’s events should still be relevant near the year’s end.  The first month of a quarter may offer clues about the next quarter or two, but probably not three or four quarters later after investors have shifted focus to subsequent corporate earnings and investment performance reports.

In fact, even without quarterly reporting cycles, you may still question why January would continue to be a “barometer” by the third or fourth quarter.  You may expect to find lower correlations of January returns with the year’s second half than with the first half, and this is exactly what we see:

jajo effect 1

Note that the 33% correlation for the “downsized” January barometer is very high for these types of relationships. It’s comfortably significant based on traditional tests (the F-stat is 8.2).  By comparison, the correlation of January’s return with the 11 months from February to December is still high at 28% but less significant (the F-stat falls to 5.1).

Here’s a scatter plot and trendline for the year-by-year results:

jajo effect 2

The chart shows that 54% of the years with negative January returns included negative returns from February to June (13 of 24), while only 9% of the years with positive January returns were followed by negative February to June returns (8 of 60). In other words, the probability of a down market between February and June was six times higher after a down market in January.

Do years or quarters hold the key to the calendar?

Second, we considered whether April, July and October also qualify as barometers, based on our speculation that the January barometer is partly explained by quarterly phenomena.

In particular, we calculated correlations with subsequent returns for all 12 months to see if the beginning-of-quarter months stand out:

jajo effect 3

Needless to say, the correlations fit the hypothesis, with the four highest belonging to January, April, July and October. The odds of this happening in a purely random market are nearly 500 to 1. Call it the “JAJO effect.”

(…) If stocks don’t recover strongly by month’s end – say, back to the S&P 500′s 2013 close of 1848.36 – the odds favor continued weakness. As January goes, so goes the first half of the year.

 M&A — Best Start to Year Since 2011

Companies and funds inked $228.2 billion worth of acquisitions this month, the highest volume of activity since 2011, according to Thomson Reuters. (…)

Deal making volume is up 85% from January 2013 when all three indexes wrapped up January with gains between 4% and 6%. Yet all that could change quickly, and a big start to the year doesn’t necessarily translate into a big year for M&A.

By mid-February 2013, it looked like M&A was back in a big way — $40 billion worth of deals were announced on one day that month. Despite a 30% plus pop in stock indexes in 2013, M&A activity ended the year far below the pre-crisis peak years.

Still a big difference so far in 2014 is that overall deal making has been wide and deep — crossing industries and regions. Many of the big deals have been corporations buying up other corporations, and the stock market has mostly applauded buyers for making deals. (…)

The winning banks so far? Morgan Stanley takes the top spot for announced global M&A. Credit Suisse is right behind Morgan Stanley. The bank served as an adviser to Lenovo on both of its $2 billion plus bids for U.S. companies in the past two weeks – Motorola Mobility and IBM‘s low-end server business.  Behind them: Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Deutsche Bank and then Citi. J.P. Morgan, typically a powerhouse deal maker, is in the 10th spot.

 

CHINA JANUARY MANUFACTURING PMI AT 49.5

January data signalled a deterioration of operating conditions in China’s manufacturing sector for the first time in six months. The deterioration of the headline PMI largely reflected weaker expansions of both output and new business over the month. Firms also cut their staffing levels at the quickest pace since March 2009. On the price front, average production costs declined at a marked rate, while firms lowered their output charges for the second successive month.

After adjusting for seasonal factors, the HSBC Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI™) posted at 49.5 in January, down fractionally from the earlier flash reading of 49.6, and down from 50.5 in December. This
signalled the first deterioration of operating conditions in China’s manufacturing sector since July.image

Production levels continued to increase in January, extending the current sequence of expansion to six months. However, the rate of growth eased to a marginal pace. While greater volumes of new work boosted production at some firms, others reduced their output amid reports of relatively subdued client demand that stemmed from fragile economic conditions.

Consequently, total new business was relatively unchanged from the previous month, following a five month sequence of growth. Meanwhile, new export orders declined for the second month running in January, with surveyed firms mentioning weaker demand in a number of key export markets.

Employment levels at Chinese manufacturers fell for the third consecutive month in January. Moreover, it was the quickest reduction of payroll numbers since March 2009. Job shedding was generally attributed by panellists to the non-replacement of voluntary leavers
as well as reduced output requirements. Despite the marked reduction of headcounts, the level of unfinished business at goods producers rose only fractionally over the month.

Purchasing activity increased for the sixth successive month. That said, the degree to which input buying increased eased to a marginal pace that was the weakest since September. Stocks of purchases and finished goods also rose slightly in January, and for the first time in three months in both cases. A number of panellists linked higher inventories to slower output growth and weaker-than-expected client demand.

Production costs declined for the first time since July 2013 in January. Moreover, the rate of input price deflation was marked overall, amid reports of lower raw material costs. Reduced cost burdens were passed on to clients in the form of lower output charges in January and marked the
second consecutive month of discounting.

 

GOOD READ: China’s Households Exposed to Housing Bubble ‘That Has to Burst’

BloombergBriefs’ Tom Orlik on a fascinating and revealing survey:

China’s households are massively exposed to an oversupplied property market according to a new survey by economist Gan Li, professor at Southwestern University of Finance and Economics in Chengdu, Sichuan and at Texas A&M University in College Station, Texas.

A 2013 survey of 28,000 households and 100,000 individuals provides striking insights on the level and distribution of household income and wealth, with far reaching implications for the economy. About 65 percent of China’s household wealth is invested in real estate, said Gan.

image_thumb[6]Ninety percent of households already own homes, and 42 percent of demand in the first half of 2012 came from buyers who already owned at least one property.

“The Chinese housing market is clearly oversupplied,” said Gan. “Existing housing stock is sufficient for every household to own one home, and we are supplying about 15 million new units a year. The housing bubble has to burst. No one knows when.”

When it does, the hit to household wealth will have a long term negative impact on consumption, he said. China’s household income is significantly higher than the official data suggest. Average urban disposable income was 30,600 yuan in 2012, according to the survey.
That’s 24 percent higher than in the National Bureau of Statistics’ data. These results suggest official statistics may overstate China’s structural imbalances, which shows household income as an extremely low share of GDP.

Many wealthy households understate their income in the official data. China’s richest 10 percent of urban households enjoy an average disposable income of 128,000 yuan per capita a year, according to Gan’s survey. That’s twice as high as the same measure in the NBS report. The
poorest 20 percent get by on about 3,000 yuan, pointing to significantly greater wealth inequality than in the U.S. or other OECD countries.

The wealth disparity helps explain China’s imbalance between high savings and investment and low consumption. Rich households have a significantly higher savings rate than poor households. The wealthiest 5 percent save 72 percent of their income, compared with the national
average of 36 percent and 40 percent of households with no savings at all in 2012.

“The solution to boosting consumption is income redistribution,” said Gan. “Compared to the U.S. and other OECD countries, China has done very little in this area.”

The survey also provides insights into China’s widespread informal lending. A third of households are involved in peer-to-peer lending, according to Gan. Zero-interest loans between friends make up the majority. Interest, when charged, is typically high, averaging a 34
percent annual rate
. That underscores the usurious cost of credit for businesses and households excluded from the formal banking sector.

 

CHINA FLASH PMI POINTS TO SLOWDOWN

  • Flash China Manufacturing PMI™ at 49.6 in January (50.5 in December). Six-month low.
  • Flash China Manufacturing Output Index at 51.3 in January (51.4 in December). Three-month low.

The marginal contraction of January’s headline HSBC Flash China Manufacturing PMI was mainly dragged by cooling domestic demand conditions. This implies softening growth momentum for manufacturing sectors, which has already weighed on employment growth. As
inflation is not a concern, the policy focus should tilt towards supporting growth to avoid repeating growth deceleration seen in 1H 2013.

Markit’s comments above fails to mention that export orders are decreasing at a faster pace an the work backlogs have turned negative.image

image

 

NEW$ & VIEW$ (20 JANUARY 2014)

China’s Economic Growth Slows to 7.7%

China’s economic growth slowed slightly in the fourth quarter, complicating the challenge for the country’s leaders as they seek to reshape the world’s No. 2 economy.

In the fourth quarter of 2013, China’s economy grew 7.7% from a year ago, slower than the 7.8% it posted in the third quarter, according to data released Monday by China’s National Bureau of Statistics. That translates into 7.4% growth on a quarter-to-quarter annualized basis, the way most major economies report growth. China doesn’t release a similar figure.

Investment, which accounts for about half of China’s economic output, was a major drag on growth in the fourth quarter, a result of monetary authorities making credit more expensive. Fixed-asset investment expanded 19.6% on-year in 2013, down from 19.9% from the first 11 months of the year, indicating slowing capital spending, according toANZ Bank. (…)

The economy was growing more slowly in December than at the beginning of the final quarter of the year.

Louis Kuijs, an economist at RBS in Hong Kong, points out that industrial production grew 9.7% on-year in December versus 10.3% in October. And export growth slowed in December after a strong showing in November. That could point to a slow start to 2014, unless other drivers like exports or local demand pick up above expectations.

One area of brightness in the fourth quarter was retail sales, which grew 13.6% on-year in December, almost the same pace of growth as November. (…)

Sarcastic smile  See anything strange in this CLSA chart? How about 7 straight quarters of stable growth.

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China’s Central Bank Providing Short-Term Cash to Lenders

In a rare accommodative measure, the state-run People’s Bank of China is providing short-term cash to the country’s biggest lenders, in a move seen as a bid to avoid a liquidity crisis near the Lunar New Year holiday.

The PBOC said it will inject further liquidity into the system via reverse purchase agreements, a form of short-term loans to banks, when it conducts its twice-a-week open market operation on Tuesday.

It said the moves are intended to maintain the stability of China’s money market ahead of the weeklong Spring Festival that kicks off on Jan. 31. (…)

The central bank’s apparent reassurance came after China’s financial system showed fresh signs of stress on Monday, with short-term borrowing costs for banks soaring on heavy holiday-induced demand for cash and rising worries over the vast shadow-banking sector.

The benchmark cost of short-term loans between banks, the weighted average of the seven-day repurchase agreement rate, rose to 6.59% on Monday, from 5.17% Friday and 4.35% Thursday. The current level marks the rate’s highest since Dec. 23, when it hit 8.94%.

The surging rates in the money markets also hammered stocks, with the benchmark Shanghai Composite falling below the key level of 2000 to 1991.25, its weakest in almost six months and down 5.9% this year, the worst performer in Asia. (…)

Housing Starts and Building Permits Decline

Housing Starts and Building Permits for the month of December both showed month/month declines but were still up compared to last year.  Relative to expectations, though, Housing Starts exceeded forecasts (999K vs. 985K), while Building Permits missed forecasts (986K vs. 1014K).

 

U.S. LABOR SUPPLY/DEMAND

The NFIB detailed report for December shows that employment was likely stronger than what the last NFP reported:

Overall, it appears that owners hired more workers on balance in December than their hiring plans indicated in November, a favorable development (apparently undetected by BLS).

Note the recent  spike in the marginal increase in employment per firm, bumping against its historical highs.image

Coming wage pressures?

Two percent reported reduced worker compensation and 17 percent reported raising compensation, yielding seasonally adjusted net 19 percent reporting higher worker compensation (up 5 points), the best reading since 2007. A net seasonally adjusted 13 percent plan to raise compensation in the coming months, down 1 point from November. Overall, the compensation picture remained at the better end of experience in this recovery, but historically weak for periods of economic growth and recovery.

Margins pressures?

With a net 19 percent raising compensation but a net negative 1 percent raising selling prices, profits will continue to be under pressure. Higher compensation costs are not being passed on to customers, but there will be more pressure to do so as Obamacare begins to impact small businesses in 2014.

Pointing up Small firms capex is also brightening:

The frequency of reported capital outlays over the past 6 months surprisingly gained 9 percentage points in December, a remarkable increase. Sixty-four percent reported outlays, the highest level since early 2005.

Of those making expenditures, 43 percent reported spending on new equipment (up 5 points), 26 percent acquired vehicles (up 4 points), and 16 percent improved or expanded facilities (up 1 point). Eight percent acquired new buildings or land for expansion (up 1 point) and 16 percent spent money for new fixtures and furniture (up 6 points). The surge in spending, especially on equipment and fixtures and furniture, is certainly welcome and is hopefully not just an end-of-year event for tax or other purposes. This level of spending is more typical of a growing economy. 

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EARNINGS WATCH

We now have 52 S&P 500 companies’ Q4 results in, 19 of which are financials.

  • Of the 53 companies in the S&P 500 that have posted earnings for the latest quarter, 57% have topped analysts’ average earnings estimate, according to FactSet.
  • Out of the 52 companies in the gauge that have posted fourth-quarter results so far, 62 percent have exceeded analysts’ profit estimates, and 63 percent have topped revenue projections, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

S&P’s own official tally shows a 52% beat rate and a 35% miss rate. Financials beat in 58% of cases while only 48% of non-financials beat (39% missed), so far.

Zacks has the best analysis:

The 2013 Q4 earnings season ramps up in the coming days, but we have results from 52 S&P 500 members already, as of Friday January 17th. And even though the early going has been Finance weighted, the overall picture emerging from the results thus far isn’t very inspiring.

The earnings reports thus far may not offer a representative sample for the S&P 500 as a whole. But we do have a good enough sample for the Finance sector as the 19 Finance sector companies that have reported already account for 47.5% of the sector’s total market capitalization and contribute more than 50% of the sector’s total Q4 earnings. (…)

Total earnings for the 19 Finance sector companies that have reported already are up +14.2% on -1% lower revenues. The earnings beat ratio is 63.2%, while only 36.8% of the companies have come out with positive top-line surprises.

Pointing up This looks good enough performance, but is actually weaker than what we had seen from these same banks in recent quarters. Not only are the earnings and revenue growth rates for the companies below what they achieved in Q3 and the 4-quarter average, but the beat ratios are weaker as well. The insurance industry, the sector’s largest industry behind the large banks, has still to report results and could potentially turnaround this growth and surprise picture for the sector.

We haven’t seen that many reports from companies outside of the Finance sector. But the few that we have seen don’t inspire much confidence. Hard to characterize any other way what we have seen from the likes of Intel (INTC), CSX Corp. (CSX), UPS (UPS) and even GE (GE). But it’s still relatively early and we will know more in the coming days.

The lack of positive surprises is ‘surprising’ following the sharp drop in Q4 estimates in the run up to the start of the reporting season.

The composite picture for Q4 – combining the results for the 52 companies that have reported already with the 448 still to come – is for earnings growth of +7.1% on +1.5% higher revenues and 50 basis points higher margins. The actual Q4 growth rally will most likely be higher than this, a function of management’s well refined expectations management skills.

Easy comparisons, particularly for the Finance sector, account for a big part of the Q4 growth. Total earnings for the Finance sector are expected to be up +25.0%. Outside of Finance, total earnings growth drops to +3.4%.

Profits Show Banks Back From the Brink

Large U.S. banks are finally emerging from the wreckage of the financial crisis, on the back of rising profits, a recovering economy and drastic cost cutting.

(…) As a group, the six earned $76 billion in 2013. That is $6 billion shy of the collective all-time high achieved in 2006, a year U.S. housing prices peaked amid a torrid economic expansion. (…)

One way for banks to improve their standing with investors is to cut compensation, jobs and business lines. This past week, Goldman Sachs announced its 2013 payroll was 3% lower than 2012’s, while Bank of America disclosed it eliminated 25,000 positions during the year. J.P. Morgan and Morgan Stanley both are in the process of exiting from the business of storing physical commodities.

Banks still face numerous headwinds, including high legal costs as regulators and investigators work through a backlog of industry activity and scrutinize everything from overseas hiring to potential manipulation of currency and interest-rate benchmarks. Higher borrowing costs are reducing homeowners’ demand for mortgages, a major profit center for some banks during the early half of 2013, and several firms reported fourth-quarter trading declines in fixed-income, currencies and commodities trading.

Despite the many challenges, big banks are beginning to find ways to boost revenue. The six largest banks posted a 4% revenue gain during 2013.

Smaller banks are recovering, as well. Earnings reports are still being released, but, together, all 6,900 commercial banks in the U.S. are on pace to match or exceed the industry’s all-time earnings peak of $145.2 billion in 2006, according to an analysis by The Wall Street Journal of Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. data. (…)

Another factor fueling earnings growth is a dramatic reduction in the reserves banks have set aside for future loan losses, as fewer U.S. borrowers default. J.P. Morgan, Bank of America, Citigroup and Wells Fargo freed up $15 billion in loan-loss reserves during 2013, including $3.7 billion in the fourth quarter. That money goes directly to the bottom line, boosting profits. The releases made up 16% of these banks’ pretax income for that final quarter. (…)

A closely watched investment-performance ratio called return on equity is well below levels achieved a decade ago. What pushed ratios lower were hundreds of billions of dollars of additional capital raised to protect the institutions from future problems and comply with new regulatory guidelines.

Goldman’s return on equity, which hit a peak of 33% in 2006, fell to 11% in 2013. The ratio was even lower for J.P. Morgan and Bank of America.

Banks are scrambling to make changes as a way of improving returns. The six biggest banks have reduced their workforces by more than 44,000 positions in the past year, while J.P. Morgan told investors it was done with an aggressive branch expansion and would no longer add to its network of 5,600 locations. Goldman Sachs’s 2013 pay reduction brings compensation expenses down to 36.9% of total revenue, the lowest percentage since 2009.

Banks will have to show they can earn money from lending and other businesses, as opposed to releasing reserves, said Fitch Ratings analyst Justin Fuller. Lending for the biggest banks was up 2% on the year, but there were limited signs that slim margins on those loans had begun to widen or at least stabilize.

Light bulb But if capex strengthen, loan demand will rise. Higher volume with the current steep yield curve = higher profits…

SENTIMENT WATCH

VOX POPULI (Gallup)

Half of Americans say investing $1,000 in the stock market right now would be a bad idea, even though the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Standard & Poor’s 500 index have recently hit record highs. Forty-six percent of Americans say investing $1,000 in the stock market would be a good idea. Trend: Americans' Views on Investing in the Stock Market

In January 2000, when the Dow was at a then-record high of 11,500, Americans were much more likely to say investing in the stock market was a good idea than they are today. A record-high 67% of Americans that month said investing was a good idea.

After the onset of the 2008-2009 Great Recession, the percentage of Americans who believed investing in the markets was a bad idea swelled to 62%. While that percentage has dropped, Americans’ confidence in buying stocks has clearly not returned to levels seen during the heady days of the early 2000s.

Stock Ownership Among Americans Still Near Record Low

Fifty-four percent of Americans now say they own stock, little changed from the 52% who said so last April — which was the lowest in Gallup’s 16-year trend of asking this question in its current format. Stock ownership is far lower than it was during the dot-com boom of 2000, when 67% said they owned stock — a record high. While staying above 60% for much of the 2000s, the ownership percentage fell into the 50% range as the Great Recession took hold and has not yet rebounded. Despite economic booms and busts, however, a majority of Americans have maintained an investment in the markets in the past 15 years. Trend: Americans' Ownership of Stocks

Although fewer Americans now own stocks, those who do, not surprisingly, are much more likely than non-owners to believe investing in the market is a good idea, 59% to 30%.

Bottom Line: The Dow is 5,000 points higher today than it was in 2000, but confidence in the markets is much lower, as is participation.

VOX DEI: Bearish Bond Belief At 20-Year Extremes

Jeff Gundlach recently warned that the trade that could inflict the most pain to the most people is a significant move down in yields (and potential bull flattening to the yield curve). (…) despite this, investors remain entirely enamored with stocks and, as the following chart shows, Treasury Bond sentiment now stands at 20-year extremes of bearishness.

Citi: “Time For Yields To Correct Lower”

The end of 2013 saw bond yields at their highs and the US equity markets making higher highs. This came as the Federal Reserve started to finally slow down its asset purchases and, as Citi’s Tom Fitzpatrick suggest, has now seemingly turned a corner in its so called “emergency” policy. That now leaves room for the market/economy to determine the proper rate of interest; and, he notes, given the patchy economic recovery, the fragile level of confidence and the low levels of inflation, Citi questions whether asset prices belong where they are today. As the Fed’s stimulus program appears to have “peaked” Citi warned investors yesterday to be cautious with the Equity markets; and recent price action across the Treasury curve suggests lower yields can be seen and US 10 year yields are in danger of retesting the 2.40% area.

US economic surprise index

General economic surprises look like they are now approaching a peak again. Only twice over the past 7 years have we been above current levels and they were short lived.

We should note that this index is naturally mean reverting as expectations rise with better than expected data and vice versa. A fall back below zero if seen may be quite important. (…)

High five  There is a lot more to Citi’s technical analysis, all mostly pointing to lower rates ahead. But before you get too technical, go back up and re-read the piece on the NFIB report.

Just kidding Up and Down Wall Street

Another sign of froth in European sovereign debt is described by Peter Tchir, a credit-market veteran who heads TF Market Advisors: Spain’s bonds due 2023 yield 3.68%, just a hair above the 3.60% from Apple‘s (AAPL) bond due 2023 issued in its then-record $17 billion offering to fund its share buyback. He admits the comparison is well, apples to oranges.

“One is denominated in euros, the other in dollars. One is a sovereign nation with devoted citizens, the other is Spain. One has so much cash on hand that trying to convince them to do something with that cash hoard has become the ultimate hedge-fund pastime. The other would have trouble rubbing two pesetas together, even if it hadn’t moved to the euro. Fifty percent of the world’s population under the age of 25 already owns or wants to own a device made by Apple. That is still a little behind the 57% in Spain who want a job (assuming some of the unemployed youth actually want jobs).”

GOLD

Physical Gold Shortage Goes Mainstream

As BNN reports, veteran trader Tres Knippa, pointing to recent futures data, says “there may not be enough gold to go around if everyone with a futures contract insists on taking delivery of physical bullion.” As he goes on to explain to a disquieted anchor, “the underlying story here is that the people acquiring physical gold continue to do that. And that’s what is important,” noting large investors like hedge fund manager Kyle Bass are taking delivery of the gold they’re buying. Knippa’s parting advice, buy physical gold; avoid paper.

One of the problems…

That won’t end well…

BUT, WILL THIS END WELL?

IMF warns on threat of income inequality

Lagarde raises stability concerns

(…) “Business and political leaders at the World Economic Forum should remember that in far too many countries the benefits of growth are being enjoyed by far too few people. This is not a recipe for stability and sustainability,” she told the Financial Times. (…)

The message is hitting home. Shinzo Abe, Japan’s prime minister, is coming to Switzerland with the message that Japanese companies must raise wages, while the government of David Cameron, his UK counterpart who is also attending the forum, called for a large inflation-busting rise in the British minimum wage last week.

In U.S., 67% Dissatisfied With Income, Wealth Distribution

Two out of three Americans are dissatisfied with the way income and wealth are currently distributed in the U.S. This includes three-fourths of Democrats and 54% of Republicans.

Satisfaction With Income and Wealth Distribution in the U.S., January 2014

The same poll updated a long-time Gallup trend, finding that 54% of Americans are satisfied, and 45% dissatisfied, with the opportunity for an American “to get ahead by working hard.” This measure has remained roughly constant over the past three years, but Americans are much less optimistic about economic opportunity now than before the recession and financial crisis of 2008 unfolded. Prior to that, at least two in three Americans were satisfied, including a high of 77% in 2002.

Satisfaction With Americans' Opportunities to Get Ahead by Working Hard, 2001-2014 Trend

 

NEW$ & VIEW$ (10 JANUARY 2014)

China Data Suggest Tepid Pickup in West

Exports in December were up just 4.3% compared with the same month a year earlier, down from a much stronger 12.7% year-over-year rise in November, according to customs data released on Friday. (…)

The poor export growth may in part be due to more than trade flows. China’s State Administration of Foreign Exchange said in December it was tightening supervision of trade financing to stop speculative “hot money” flows from being disguised as trade. That likely dragged down an already weak growth number, Ms. Sun said Friday.

Official data showed a jump in December 2012 that many economists attributed to capital flows misreported as trade.

By contrast, the latest import figures were strong, beating forecasts with an 8.3% year-over-year rise in December, up from 5.3% in November. They were boosted by high raw-material shipments. China brought in 6.33 million barrels a day of crude oil in December, a record, and copper, iron ore and plastic imports were up strongly, too. That could indicate that companies are building up inventories again after running them down earlier in the year, said Shuang Ding, an economist at Citigroup,  but he cautioned that the trend may not last long.

However:

CALIFORNIA BOOMING State Controller John Chiang today released his monthly report covering California’s cash balance, receipts and disbursements in December 2013. Revenues for the month totaled $10.6 billion, surpassing estimates in the state budget by $2.3 billion, or 27.7 percent.

California ended the 2013 calendar year with a burst of tax receipts as the economic recovery continued to boost jobs, incomes, profits, and spending. Revenues flowing into the State’s General Fund coffers totaled $10.6 billion, beating estimates contained in the 2013-14 Budget Act by a hefty $2.3 billion, or 27.7%.

As we noted in our analysis of November’s revenues which, at first glance, appeared to fall short of projections, approximately $400 million of December’s $2.3 billion of unanticipated revenues were actually generated in the month of November but were not deposited into the General Fund and booked into the State’s official ledger until the first week of December.  We attribute this timing anomaly to “Black Friday” weekend falling at the end of November, which impacted the timing of retail sales collections and when they were recorded in the state ledger.

Even when this anomaly is factored-out, December’s revenue numbers alone are still impressive. Retail sales tax receipts surged past estimates by over $700 million, a jump assisted by an improvement in the job market, last year’s 30% swell in stock prices, and strong rebound in housing-related holiday shopping. The growing popularity of online shopping and the agreement of online retailers to now collect California sales taxes also helped boost results.

Personal income taxes exceeded expectations by a large margin of $987 million in December. Estimated taxes were very high, bolstered by capital gains and the desire by taxpayers to make payments by year-end to add to their 2013 federal income tax deduction. Rounding out California’s three major tax sources, corporate tax receipts were better than expected by $189 million during December.

Low-End Retailers Had a Rough Holiday

Retailers such as Family Dollar and Sears had a rough holiday period as their lower-income customers remain under pressure.

Family Dollar Stores Inc. on Thursday lowered its full-year profit forecast and reversed course on strategy. It pledged to cut prices more deeply to win back shoppers, saying its economically challenged customers are under more pressure than ever.

Meanwhile, Sears Holding Corp. said sales at its Sears and K-Mart chains fell deeply from a year earlier, reflecting weakness in its customer base as well as strategic missteps by executives trying to reshape its business. Sears shares plunged 14% in after hours trading.

The company said sales over roughly the past two months, excluding recently opened or closed stores, fell 7.4%. Sales were dragged down by a 9.2% drop in its domestic Sears stores and a 5.7% decline at Kmart with weakness in traditionally strong areas such as tools and home appliances. (…)

Even retailers that target consumers in the middle market have struggled this holiday. Gap Inc., which had been clocking strong sales gains for much of last year, said Thursday that comparable-store sales increased a scant 1% in November and December. L Brands Inc., owner of Victoria’s Secret and Bath & Body Works, said December same-store sales rose just 2% and lowered its earnings guidance for the fourth quarter. (…)

Thomson Reuters rounds it up:

Excluding the drug stores, the Thomson Reuters Same Store Sales Index registered a 2.4% comp for December, beating its 1.9% final estimate. The 2.4% result is an improvement over November’s 1.2% result. Including the Drug Store sector, SSS growth rises to 3.8%, above its final estimate of 2.7%. The late Thanksgiving this year pushed revenue from CyberMonday and other post-Thanksgiving sales into December, helping to offset some of the reduction in sales from the shortened holiday shopping season.

Every apparel retailer in the index missed its SSS estimate with the exception of Stein Mart, as consumers avoided malls during the holiday shopping season, increasingly preferring to shop online. Retailers responded with discounts and promotions to lure customers, while settling for lower margins in the process.

Pointing up Our Thomson Reuters Quarterly Same Store Sales Index, which consists of 75 retailers, is expected to post 1.7% growth for Q4 (vs. 1.6% in Q4 2012). This is below the 3.0% healthy mark.

Banks Cut as Mortgage Boom Ends

A sharp slowdown in mortgage refinancing is forcing banks to cut jobs, fight harder for a smaller pool of home-purchase loans and employ new tactics to drum up business.

A sharp slowdown in mortgage refinancing is forcing banks to cut jobs, fight harder for a smaller pool of home-purchase loans and employ new tactics to drum up business.

The end of a three-decade period of falling mortgage rates has slammed the brakes on a huge wave of refinancing by U.S. households. The drop-off has deprived lenders of a key source of income at a time when the growth in loans for home purchases remains weak.

The Mortgage Bankers Association next week plans to cut its 2014 forecast for loan originations, which include loans for home purchases and refinancing. The current forecast of $1.2 trillion would represent the lowest level in 14 years. The trade group Wednesday reported that mortgage applications in the two weeks ending Jan. 3 touched a 13-year low. (…)

In the third quarter, mortgage-banking income, which includes fees from making new loans and processing payments on existing loans, tumbled by 45% at 10 big banks tracked by industry publication Inside Mortgage Finance. (…)

Draghi Says ECB Ready to Act

European Central Bank chief Mario Draghi pledged “decisive action” if needed to safeguard the euro-zone recovery, as it kept its key lending rate at a record low 0.25%.

The European Central Bank surprised markets with an emphatic assurance that it would respond aggressively if inflation weakens to dangerously low levels, as officials sought to spur the fragile euro-zone recovery.

President Mario Draghi‘s pledge Thursday to deploy “further decisive action” if needed to counter threats stands in contrast to the Federal Reserve, which deployed its stimulus measures sooner and is now slowly winding them down amid signs of more robust U.S. growth.

France’s industrial output surged by 1.3% in November (-0.5% in October), against expectations for a 0.4% rise. EU’s IP could be turning positive YoY:image

OIL
 
Slower China oil demand to test exporters
Crude imports grew by the least in almost a decade in 2013

(…) Last year imports averaged 5.64m barrels a day, an increase of 216,880 b/d, or just under 4 per cent from 2012, according to customs data released on Friday. That was the lowest annual growth since 2005 and a fraction of the record increase in 2010, when import growth topped 700,000 b/d. (…)

But China’s economic growth is beginning to slow, while the focus on energy-intensive manufacturing is also fading.

China also has moved from being a net importer of diesel – a key industrial fuel – to a regular exporter. As a result the need to build new refineries, which encourage more imports, has also become less urgent. (…)Site Meter

Oil Breaking Down

Oil has now given up all of its December gains since the calendar moved into 2014.  As shown below, another dip today has caused the commodity to “break down” below its lows from last November, leaving it just above the $90 level.

Now, that’s WTI which suffers from the surge in U.S. domestic production. Brent, the key crude for U.S. prices is holding its own:

Ghost SENTIMENT WATCH

Prospect of US bond market showdown rises
Pace of recovery brings forward expectations of tightening

Bond traders are bringing forward their expectations of when the Federal Reserve will start to tighten policy, leading to a jump in short-term US borrowing costs.

Recent economic data have pointed to a gathering American recovery, and could result in a showdown between policy makers and the Treasury market.

Ian McAvity:

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Lance Roberts:

One argument that I hear made consistently is that retail investors are just now beginning to jump into the market. The chart below shows the percentage of stocks, bonds and cash owned by individual investors according to the American Association of Individual Investor’s survey. As you can see, equity ownership and near record low levels of cash suggest that the individual investor is “all in.”

Click to View

(…) professional investors are just plain “giddy” about the market.

Click to View

Of course, with investors fully committed to stocks it is not surprising to see margin debt as a percentage of the S&P 500 at record levels also. It is important to notice that sharp spikes in this ratio have always coincided with market corrections of which some have been much worse than others.

Click to View

We sure need everything (profits, jobs, interest rates, inflation) to be right…Fingers crossed

 

CHINA COMPOSITE PMI DECLINES TO 51.2

HSBC China Composite PMI™ data (which covers both manufacturing and services) signalled an increased amount of output for the fifth successive month in December. The rate of expansion eased from November’s eight-month high, though remained modest. This was
signalled by the HSBC Composite Output Index posting at 51.2 in December, down from 52.3 in November.

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Chinese manufacturers reported a further expansion of output in December. Despite having eased over the month, the rate of growth remained moderate overall. Service providers also reported increased business activity in December. That said, the rate of growth eased to a
marginal pace that was the weakest since August 2011. The latter was signalled by the HSBC China Services Business Activity Index posting at 50.9 in December, down from 52.5 in November.

New business rose across both the manufacturing and service sectors in December. Goods producers reported a modest expansion that was similar to the previous month. Service providers also signalled a modest rate of new order growth in December, though it was the weakest in six
months. Consequently, total new work increased at a moderate pace at the composite level.

December data signalled divergent trends by sector for employment. Chinese manufacturers reported net job shedding for the second successive month, while service providers saw payroll numbers increase for the fourth month in a row. Moreover, it was the strongest expansion
of workforce numbers in the service sector since June. At the composite level, staffing levels were broadly unchanged for the second month running.

The level of work-in-hand at manufacturers increased for the fifth consecutive month in December. The rate of accumulation was moderate, despite having eased slightly from November. Meanwhile, service providers signalled a reduced amount of outstanding business, following no change one month previous. That said, the rate of depletion was only slight. At the composite level, backlogs of work increased for the fifth month in a row, albeit marginally.

Average input costs increased across both the manufacturing and service sectors in December. That said, the overall rate of inflation was modest and the weakest in five months.

In December manufacturers cut their factory gate prices for the first time since July, albeit fractionally. In contrast, service providers raised their selling prices for the fifth successive month. As a result, average tariffs increased slightly at the composite level.

Latest data signalled that Chinese service providers were optimistic towards the 12-month business outlook in December, with 26% of panellists expecting output to increase. However, the degree of positive sentiment remained historically weak, despite improving from the
previous month.

 

CHINA MANUFACTURING PMI DOWN TO 50.5

Chinese manufacturers signalled a further expansion of output in December, though the rate of growth eased from the previous month. New orders also rose at a fractionally slower pace, with foreign sales posting a slight decline for the first time in four months. Staffing levels fell for the second month in a row, while backlogs of work increased at a moderate pace.

After adjusting for seasonal factors, the HSBC Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI™) posted at 50.5 in December, unchanged from the earlier flash reading, and down slightly from 50.8 in November. Operating
conditions faced by Chinese manufacturers have now improved for five consecutive months.

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Chinese manufacturers reported an increased amount of output for the fifth successive month in December. However, the rate of growth eased from November’s eight-month high, and remained modest overall. Growth was supported by a further expansion of total new work. The degree to which new business increased was moderate, despite easing fractionally from November. Meanwhile, new business from abroad decreased for the first time in four months, albeit marginally.

Greater volumes of total new orders led to an increased amount of outstanding business across the sector. However, the rate of backlog accumulation eased to a three-month low. Meanwhile, payroll numbers declined for the second month running in December and at a modest rate. According to anecdotal evidence, employment levels fell due to the non-replacement of voluntary leavers.

Purchasing activity rose for the fifth successive month in December and at a moderate pace. Higher production requirements were cited by a number of panellists. In contrast, stocks of pre-production goods declined for the second month in a row. That said, the rate of depletion was unchanged from the previous month and marginal.

Average input costs faced by Chinese manufacturers increased for the fifth month running in December. Anecdotal evidence mentioned that higher purchasing prices raised production costs in the latest survey
period. However, the rate of input price inflation was the weakest in the current sequence and moderate overall. Meanwhile, selling prices declined for the first time in five months, though only at a fractional rate. According to anecdotal evidence, insufficient demand for goods led to some companies discounting their tariffs.

The Official PMI slipped:

The official manufacturing purchasing managers index fell in December to 51.0, slightly below expectations, from 51.4 the month before.

The official PMI subindexes for output, new orders and new export orders in December were all down from the month before, suggesting that demand as well as current production remains weak.

The subindex for finished goods inventory also fell, suggesting manufacturers are wary of building up large stocks of unsold goods in an uncertain environment. An overhang of inventories caused by over-optimistic sales projections helped damp production in 2013. (WSJ)