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- U.K. Services Growth Slows
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Author Archives: Denis Ouellet
FROM DOUBLE DIP TO MUDDLING THROUGH
Muddling through is my scenario since early July. David Rosenberg has upgraded his double dip scenario, for now… The (employment) data are hardly strong but admittedly are not consistent with the economy contracting this quarter. But the data do not … Continue reading
Posted in ***RECOVERY WATCH, ECONOMY, EMPLOYMENT, US Employment, US economy
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GOOD US AUGUST EMPLOYMENT DATA
Private household employment jumped 891,000 in August, the biggest increase in 10 years. Over the past 8 months, private household employment has increased 2.3 million jobs, 3.3% annualized. Household employment tends to lead payroll employment which has gained only 763,000 … Continue reading
Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index
Back to neutral on the basis of the most recent data. The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti business conditions index is designed to track real business conditions at high frequency. Its underlying economic indicators (weekly initial jobless claims; monthly payroll employment, industrial production, personal … Continue reading
OBAMA CONSIDERS BUSINESS TAX BREAKS
A pure and simple cut in corporate tax rates would be much better. See THE URGENT NEED TO CUT US COPORATE TAX RATES (II) With just two months until the November elections, the White House is seriously weighing a package … Continue reading
Posted in ECONOMY, TAXES, US economy
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QUICK READS
ECB lifts eurozone growth forecasts Central bank extends bank lending facility and holds rates. For this year, it expects growth in a range with a mid-point of 1.6 per cent compared with 1 per cent anticipated in June. For 2011, … Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized
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U.K. Services Growth Slows
The U.K.’s economic recovery showed further signs of losing steam as data showed a sharp slowdown in growth in the country’s dominant services sector. Research group Markit and the Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply said the services Purchasing Managers … Continue reading
Posted in ***RECOVERY WATCH, ECONOMY, UK economy
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EUROZONE RETAIL SALES REMAIN WEAK
The volume of retail trade increased by 0.1% MoM in July in both the euro area (EA16) and the EU27. June sales sales rose by 0.2% and 0.3% respectively. YoY retail sales rose by 1.1% in the euro area and … Continue reading
Q4 US VEHICLE PRODUCTION TO DECLINE 21%
After a scheduled 36% (annual rate) increase in Q3 2010 to 8.2 million units, Ward’s Automotive now forecasts that US vehicle production is scheduled to decline 21% (a.r.) to 7.7 million units in Q4. US vehicle sales have stalled below … Continue reading
Global Manufacturers Still Manufacturing
There were some unexpected results in the August manufacturing PMI releases of both the good and bad variety. Some countries are slowing while others unexpectedly picked up. Bottom Line: Global manufacturing activity continued to expand as the summer drew to … Continue reading
Canadian Dollar Still Doing its Stock Dance
The Canadian dollar flared higher by 1-1/2% on Wednesday on precisely no domestic news, paced instead by a rebound in commodity prices and the broader bounce in financial market sentiment. The loonie’s near-air-tight link with an index of global stocks, … Continue reading
Posted in CURRENCIES
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OIL INVENTORIES JUST KEEP RISING
With a build of over 3 million barrels in the latest week, oil inventories continue to swell. As shown in the chart, even though we are now in the period of the year when oil stockpiles typically decline, this year … Continue reading
Posted in ENERGY, Oil
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Bearish Sentiment Rises to Highest Level Since March 2009
In mid-August we noted that investment advisers picked the wrong time to turn bullish as bullish sentiment rose sharply just before the S&P 500 began its next leg lower. While early August was the wrong time to turn bullish, will … Continue reading
Posted in EQUITIES, SENTIMENT INDIC, US equities
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