At the end of 2008, the doom and gloom crowd was in full control with no end in sight for the nastiest financial crisis since the Great Depression. The negatives were so many and so strong, nobody really cared for equities, as cheap as they were. The frenzy was so one-sided that a casual read of even the most serious media was downright depressing.
For my own financial sake, as well as that of several friends who relied on my investment calls, I needed to make sure that I got the economic facts right, cleansed of all the non-relevant noise and subjectivity. I also needed to convince myself that equity markets were really discounting something close to the end of the world so that, with the facts right, I could be buying with strong confidence of a highly favourable risk/reward ratio.
In early 2009, circumstances were such that I was able to take time to launch New$-To-Use, essentially to help me separate the junky noise from the hard facts and make a thorough, objective assessment of equity markets.
Listing and analyzing the relevant facts, void of all unnecessary noise, enables me to make objective sense of what is actually going on. Publishing them in a blog and publicly dissecting valuation criteria allows me to archive and organize the facts and ensures objectivity and thoroughness.
To my amazement, people came to my (still) un-advertised and un-marketed site. NTU suits me well and it seems to suit many other investors seeking factual, objective info, unbiased analysis and simple, sensible and effective valuation work.
Regular readers understand that equity investing is much more a probability than a forecasting game. Nobody knows what markets will do but if we can objectively assess probabilities, we can tune our portfolios according to our own individual risk profile.
This is NTU, a mean to get the relevant facts right in order to better use the probabilities provided by objective and proven tools that everybody can use and understand.
Well, it has now been 5 years!
And things are getting very interesting again. In effect, it took nearly 5 years of a highly unpopular bull market for the bulls to finally reappear in the open and for the media to regain their usual unbridled optimism even though most valuation measures have gone from nearly historical lows to close to fair (full?) values. The repulsive bear bee-sss of the past 5 years has, unsurprisingly, been reformulated into the usual attractive bully fragrance.
I am still having fun writing this blog, seeking the relevant facts and the Truth among all the “Vivas!” out there.
So, happy, healthy and prosperous new year all. It will surely be an interesting one.