U.S. MANUFACTURING PMIs SHOW STRENGTH

Two strong reports: first the ISM (charts from Bespoke Investment)

The PMI™ registered 57.3 percent, an increase of 0.9 percentage point from October’s reading of 56.4 percent. The PMI™ has increased progressively each month since June, with November’s reading reflecting the highest PMI™ in 2013.

The New Orders Index increased in November by 3 percentage points to 63.6 percent, and the Production Index increased by 2 percentage points to 62.8 percent. The Employment Index registered 56.5 percent, an increase of 3.3 percentage points compared to October’s reading of 53.2 percent. This reflects the highest reading since April 2012 when the Employment Index registered 56.8 percent. With 15 of 18 manufacturing industries reporting growth in November relative to October, the positive growth trend characterizing the second half of 2013 is continuing.

“The past relationship between the PMI™ and the overall economy indicates that the average PMI™ for January through November (53.7 percent) corresponds to a 3.6 percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis. In addition, if the PMI™ for November (57.3 percent) is annualized, it corresponds to a 4.7 percent increase in real GDP annually.”

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New Orders

ISM’s New Orders Index registered 63.6 percent in November, an increase of 3 percentage points when compared to the October reading of 60.6 percent. This represents growth in new orders for the sixth consecutive month, at a faster rate than in October.

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ISM’s New Export Orders Index registered 59.5 percent in November, which is 2.5 percentage points higher than the 57 percent reported in October. November’s reading reflects growth in the level of exports relative to October, and is the highest reading since February 2012 when the index also registered 59.5 percent. This month’s reading also represents the 12th consecutive month of growth in new export orders.

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Markit’s PMI is a little more subdued:

The final Markit U.S. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI™) registered 54.7 in November, signalling the strongest improvement in manufacturing business conditions since January. The headline index was up sharply from 51.8 in October (a one-year low) and above the earlier flash estimate of 54.3. The three-month average of the PMI – an indication of underlying trends – was 53.1 and broadly in line with the respective average for 2013 to date.

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Manufacturing production in the U.S. increased at the sharpest pace for 20 months in November. The marked rate of output growth was much faster than the slight expansion seen in October, which was partly a result of disruption caused by the government shutdown. All three market groups (consumer, intermediate and investment) saw improved output trends over the month, led by producers of consumer goods.

Firms linked the marked rise in output to a stronger increase in new work intakes. Notably, new order growth was strong and accelerated to one of the fastest rates for over one-and-a-half years. A second consecutive monthly rise in new export orders contributed to the overall increase in total new work. The latest rise in new export orders was above the average for 2013 to date, though modest.

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Employment in the U.S. manufacturing sector increased for the fifth consecutive month in November. However, the rate of job creation slowed to a modest pace that was weaker than the average for 2013 so far. (…)

Firms passed on greater costs to clients by raising their selling prices. The latest rise in output charges was solid and the fastest for over two years.

Output growth at large manufacturers (more than 500 employees) rose at a marked and accelerated pace in November. This generally reflected the sharpest increase in new orders for almost three years.
Small manufacturers (less than 100 employees) similarly saw a strong increase in production. The rate of growth was the fastest since February 2011.

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