NEW$ & VIEW$ (5 DECEMBER 2013)

ISM Services Weaker Than Expected

These days, there’s nothing like a weaker than expected economic indicator to get the market going.  While the DJIA was down about 50 points before the release of the ISM Non Manufacturing report, the weaker than expected headline number spurred an 80+ point rally off the lows.  While economists were expecting the November ISM Services to come in at a level of 55.0, the actual reading came in at 53.9.  Putting the ISM Manufacturing and ISM Non Manufacturing reports together and accounting for each sector’s weight in the overall economy, the combined ISM for the month of November fell to 54.3 from last month’s reading of 55.5.

Smile  New orders remain strong, however.

Combining the Manufacturing with the Services ISM (chart from Ed Yardeni), the strength in new orders is pretty encouraging. Christmas sales better be good, otherwise we will all have an inventory overhang…

New-Home Sales Surge

New-home sales rose 25% in October from the prior month to an annual rate of 444,000, the Commerce Department said Wednesday. That marked the sharpest monthly increase in more than three decades, though it came off a particularly weak September pace.

The surge returned sales to the brisk pace seen in the first half of the year before a summer rise in mortgage rates scared off prospective buyers. Sales had tumbled to an average annual pace of 369,000 in July through September, according to revised figures released Wednesday, down from an average pace of 445,000 in the first six months of 2013.

October’s activity caused the supply of homes on the market to contract sharply. Inventory fell to a 4.9-month supply, a historically low level. The tight supply coupled with the pickup in sales could lead home builders to ramp up construction in coming months, a development that would boost the overall U.S. recovery. (…)

Pointing up The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage was 4.29% last week, up from the 3.35% average registered in early May, according to Freddie Mac. (…)

Raymond James adds:

Following last week’s modest 0.2% drop, applications for purchase mortgages were down 4.1%, and on a rolling two-week basis (to take account of Thanksgiving), purchase apps are down 8.7% y/y. We note the purchase index still remains only 3.1% above this year’s lows (week of October 11) due to the “sticker shock” of spring price increases, higher interest rates, and the overhang from economic/political uncertainty. Applications remain well below recently reported y/y growth in new home sales (+22% in October), although in line with existing home sales (-6% in October), led by a declining mix of first-time buyers within both segments.

BTW:

TurtleSnail Revisions to earlier home-sales reports in June, July, and August showed that sales in each of those months were lower than initially forecast. New-home sales in September, meanwhile, stood 7.8% below the level of a year earlier, the first time in nearly two years that sales turned negative on a year-over-year basis. (…) (Chart from Haver Analytics)

CalculatedRisk has the LT chart:

BTW (2): ISI’s Homebuilders’ Survey is at its lowest level since April 2012.

Emerging market growth strengthens further

The HSBC Emerging Markets Index (EMI), a monthly indicator derived from the PMI™ surveys, continued its upward trajectory in November on the back of faster manufacturing growth. The EMI rose to 52.1, from 51.7 in October, signalling the fastest expansion in business activity across global emerging markets since March. That said, growth remained only moderate overall.

Manufacturing production rose at a faster rate in November, reflecting stronger momentum at Chinese goods producers, a resumption of growth in India and marked increases in Turkey and Eastern European
economies in particular. Indonesia, Russia, Brazil and South Korea weighed on manufacturing growth in the latest period. Meanwhile, growth of services activity across emerging markets was unchanged from October‟s seven-month high.

Moderate increases in activity across manufacturing and services combined were signalled in China, Russia and Brazil. Indian private sector output fell for the fifth month running, albeit at the weakest rate in this sequence.

New order growth was maintained at a moderate rate in November. Moreover, the volume of outstanding business increased at the strongest rate since March 2011. Firms raised headcounts on average for the
second month running, albeit at a weak rate. Inflationary pressures were unchanged from October, with input prices continuing to rise at a faster rate than prices charged for final goods and services.

image

OPEC Maintains Crude-Production Target at Vienna Meeting

Maintaining the 30 million-barrel-a-day target for the 12-nation Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, which supplies about 40 percent of the world’s oil, will ensure price stability, Venezuelan Energy Minister Rafael Ramirez said yesterday. There will be no need to reduce the cap at the next meeting, Libyan Oil Minister Abdulbari al-Arusi said.

OPEC will hold its next meeting June 11, Al-Naimi said.

Libya is confident other OPEC members will make room for its oil, al-Arusi said yesterday. The country’s output will rise to 1.5 million barrels a day in 10 days from 250,000, as all production issues have been resolved, he said. Iraq won’t cut its output or discuss OPEC quotas anytime soon, Iraqi Oil Minister Abdul Kareem al-Luaibi said.

Thumbs down The Centre for Global Energy Studies in London and Citigroup Inc. in New York have forecast that Saudi Arabia and its allies Kuwait, Qatar and the U.A.E. would have to reduce production by 1 million to 2 million barrels a day in 2014 to prevent a glut and keep prices stable.

Thumbs up Al-Naimi said before the closed-door meeting that 30 million isn’t too much for OPEC to target. He also said there’s no need for Saudi Arabia to cut its own production. The kingdom is OPEC’s biggest oil exporter and produced 9.65 million barrels a day last month, according to a Bloomberg survey. In the past two years, Saudi Arabia has adjusted its own production without any change to OPEC’s formal output ceiling.

Thumbs up “Considerable supply-side risks in OPEC” mean the group will probably need to cut output only by 600,000 barrels a day next year, which is within Saudi Arabia’s capability to do alone, according to Harry Tchilinguirian and Gareth Lewis-Davies, analysts at BNP Paribas SA.

Storm cloud “In addition to continuing problems in Nigeria, the planned incremental supply from Iraq may not emerge due to civil unrest, a recovery in Libyan output in the near term is unlikely, Venezuelan political unrest is a concern and we believe the re-emergence of Iranian barrels remains some way off,” the BNP analysts said in an e-mailed report. (…)

FYI, from Doug Short:

Click to View

Click to View

 

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *