Scotia Capital lays out the bear‘s bare facts (click on charts to enlarge):
The S&P 500 is down 17.5% from its April 29 peak of 1,363 and is flirting
with official bear market status. Europe (DAX -31%) and the TSX (-22%)
are already in bear market.
Average S&P 500 bear market decline is 38% and lasts 21 months.
Ned Davis Research adds (via MarketWatch)
The average bear market since 1900 has lasted 410 days, according to calculations conducted by Ned Davis Research. Since 158 days have already elapsed since the bull market high on April 29, that means that — if this is a bear market and its length is precisely average — we have another 252 days to go.
That places the bottom of the bear market on June 12 of next year.
Again according to Ned Davis Research, the average bear market loss since 1900 has been a decline of 31.5%.
Again on the assumption that we’re in a bear market and its duration and severity are average, this means the Dow Jones Industrial Average will hit bottom at 8,775 — nearly 2,000 lower than where it stands today. In terms of the S&P 500 index, the bottom would be at 934, nearly 200 points below current levels.