David Rosenberg uses the Conference Board Survey of Consumer Confidence to support his bearishness:
Rarely, if ever, has the perception gap between Wall Street and Main Street been so wide as it is today.
A quick look at this chart shows that Americans are almost perfect at forecasting recession ends…and beginnings. This is a great contrarian indicator for the economy. If anything, it supports the notion that Wall Street is right this time.
From a market timing viewpoint, the 10-30% range on this indicator seems like a good “bye low-sell high” tool.