In the new quarter, Sales are growing at a pace of 3% to 3.5%. That should help to underpin Q4 GDP growth.
(…) The Office for National Statistics reporting that retail sales fell by 0.3% in November from October, the first month-on-month decline in six months.
Sales at non-food stores fell by 0.9 per cent in the month, as sales at department stores fell at their fastest pace since records began in 1988. Sales of clothing were down 1.8 per cent, probably thanks to a slightly warmer than normal November.(…)
“Not only do November’s official UK retail sales figures show a drop in high street spending, but timelier anecdotal evidence suggests that December got off to a slow start too,” said Vicky Redwood at Capital Economics.
After value-added tax was cut to 15 per cent by the government last December as part of its £20bn package of discretionary economic stimulus measures, analysts had been expecting much of the benefit to fall in the final quarter of this year as shoppers made big ticket purchases just before the tax rate was raised back to 17.5 per cent.
But this boost did not seem to materialise in November. Previous changes to VAT tended to boost spending at the last moment before rises were introduced, said Ms Redwood. That would suggest that December should see an increase, although it is also likely to drag down spending in the first quarter.(…)
UK Real and Nominal Retail Sales Quarter Nominal Nov-09 Oct-09 Sep-09 3-MO 6-MO 12-MO YrAGo 2-date Retail Total -0.3% 0.5% 0.4% 2.9% 4.0% 2.6% 2.0% 3.2% Food Bev & Tobacco 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 2.3% 2.2% 3.4% 7.3% 2.5% Clothing footwear -2.0% 1.5% 0.4% -0.7% 1.5% 1.4% -1.7% 0.3% Real Retial Ex auto -0.4% 0.6% 0.4% 2.9% 5.3% 3.1% 0.8% 3.6%
Chart and Table from Haver Analytics
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