The Chicago Tribune (via The Buffalo News) had a positive article on the RV industry. While I see why it would lead on a downturn, I fail to see how it can be an early indicator in an upturn. Anyway, things seem to be looking up.
Before housing hit the skids, credit got crunched and the unemployment rate shot into double digits, the market for recreational vehicles had already hit the skids.
Economists view RVs as an early indicator of where the economy is going, and, as it turned out, the rest of the planet followed motor homes and travel trailers right over the edge.
Now comes word that RV sales have started picking up. Airstream Inc. is boosting production of its iconic caravans and expanding its work force by 50 percent.
"Airstream is back on the road to recovery," Chief Executive Bob Wheeler declared. "We can expect to see significant growth."(…)
Robert W. Baird & Co. tracks the RV industry. Their take is less optimistic. RV sales fell 28% YoY in October, worsening from down 24% in September.
Motorhome retail fell 28% in October. Class A registrations decreased 31% while Class C registrations fell 23%. Motorhome demand remains weak (note that October begins the seasonally less significant winter selling season), but shipments are beginning to come into line with retail as the dealer destocking trend has run its course. Conditions remain difficult, but we expect a robust wholesale recovery as demand improves and dealers replenish inventory at a more normal rate.
Retail SAAR. The seasonally adjusted annual rate of motorhome retail registrations for October was 18,100 units, up from 16.900 units in September.
Dealer inventories. Retail was roughly in line with wholesale in October, indicating dealers are beginning to stock at closer to a 1:1 rate. We believe the destocking trend has run its course and expect more normal replenishment rates going forward, driving improved wholesale shipment results.
But Winnebago Industries’ recent quarterly results were hopeful:
Winnebago Industries’ sales order backlog was 1,521 motor homes at November 28, 2009, an increase of 350 percent compared to the end of the first quarter of fiscal 2009. This also represents an increase of 62 percent from August 29, 2009, the end of our fourth quarter. "The increased demand for our products is particularly noteworthy since it is seasonally very unusual to have a significant increase at this time of year," said Olson.
"We have seen particular strength in the backlog for our Class A gas and diesel products. Due to the escalation of our sales order backlog, we have increased our production levels and during the first quarter of fiscal 2010, our employment grew by approximately 350 employees."
Related posts:
