Roubini says gold at $2,000 is “utter nonsense”. Rogers says “It’s clear Mr. Roubini hasn’t done his homework, yet again.”
One of them, an academic, has but one good career call, the other one, a true investor, well, we are still counting.
There is no inflation or “near-depression” to drive gold prices that high, Roubini said today at the Inside Commodities Conference in New York. If a severe depression came to pass, with investors buying canned goods and hiding out in log cabins, “maybe you want some gold in that scenario,” Roubini said.
“Maybe it will reach $1,100 or so but $1,500 or $2,000 is nonsense,” Roubini said. (…)
Rogers, who predicted the start of the commodities rally in 1999, said in an interview on Bloomberg Television today that Roubini is wrong about the threat of bubbles in gold and emerging-markets stocks. The price of gold will double in the next decade, he said.(…)
“It is very hard to justify oil going from $30 to above $80 based only on the fundamentals of supply and demand,” Roubini said. Prices are “in part” a bubble, he said.
“What bubble?” Rogers said, when asked if he agreed with Roubini’s view. “It’s clear Mr. Roubini hasn’t done his homework, yet again.”
Rogers countered Roubini’s arguments by saying that Chinese stocks and sugar, silver, coffee and cotton have all dropped from their historical highs by at least 50 percent.
When asked if gains made this year pointed to a bubble, he said: “It’s not a bubble if something is up 100 percent this year, but down 70 percent from its high. That’s not a bubble, that’s a good year. That’s a great year. Maybe it’s too high for this year, but that’s not a bubble.”
“I suspect gold going to go over $2000 some time in the bull market, but depending on what happens in the world it could go much, much higher,” Rogers said. “The old high, back in 1980 adjusted for inflation, would be over $2000 now, just to get back to the old high. So we’ll certainly get there some time in the next decade.”
Rogers agreed with Roubini that the dollar’s decline was encouraging investors to buy more commodities and assets. The U.S. currency has dropped 13 percent since the start of March against a trade-weighted basket of currencies.
“Right now, everybody including me is pessimistic on the U.S. dollar,” Rogers said. “That usually leads to a rally, whatever the asset is, and I would just suspect it’s going to happen again this time.
“How long will it last? I don’t know,” he said. “It depends on how the world evolves. Somewhere along the line, I expect I’ll have to sell the rest of my dollars.”
“I don’t know any emerging market stock markets that are so high I’d call them a bubble,” Rogers said. “They’re certainly all up a lot, maybe they’re too high, but being too high is not a bubble for anyone who knows financial markets.”
In contrast to Roubini, Rogers said the only bubble he sees in the Western world now is in U.S. bonds.
“I cannot conceive of lending money to the U.S. for 30 years,” he said. “Other than that, I don’t see any bubbles going on, unless he knows something the rest of us don’t know.”