The number of confirmed and suspected cases of swine flu worldwide rose Tuesday, as the World Health Organization increased its alert level on the deadly disease, saying containment of the outbreak wasn’t feasible.
The WHO raised its level of influenza pandemic alert from phase 3 to phase 4, after the organization’s Emergency Committee considered data on confirmed outbreaks in the U.S., Mexico and Canada.
Schools were closed in Mexico and public gathering banned as the country grapples with an outbreak of swine flu. The U.S. is offering assistance but also cautioning all travelers against non-essential travel. Video courtesy Fox News.
The phase 4 alert "indicates that the likelihood of a pandemic has increased, but not that a pandemic is inevitable," the WHO said in a statement. "Given the widespread presence of the virus, the Director-General [Margaret Chan] considered that containment of the outbreak isn’t feasible. The current focus should be on mitigation measures." The top threat level is phase 6, which would indicate an epidemic in at least two regions.
Strategists at Credit Suisse said if concerns rose to levels of the previous SARS crisis, which it said was unlikely, markets could drop 10% to 15%. Travel and hotel plays suffered during the SARS crisis, it noted, while utilities, drugs and telecoms were winners.
Based on World Bank numbers last year, a worst-case scenario could cost more than $3 trillion — assuming that 1% of the world’s population dies, said Julian Jessop, chief international economist at Capital Economics.
But he noted that the swine flu appears to respond well to treatment using existing drugs, and pointed out that even in Mexico, the death rate has been falling now that the outbreak has been recognized. (…)
MarketWatch
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