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Monthly Archives: February 2009
CONSUMER WATCH: RECENT SURVEY POINTS TO RENEWED WEAKNESS IN CONSUMER SPENDING
Although retailers have continued to display dismal year-over-year same-store-sales growth rates , week-over-week reports provided some hopes that things were not getting worst. Source: The International Council of Shopping Centers and Goldman Sachs Retail Chain Store Sales Index I am … Continue reading
SHRINKING TRADE AROUND THE WORLD
From NYT: The world trading system, whose growth was deemed an inevitable part of globalization only a year ago, is now shrinking rapidly. Falling Exports Japan, a country built in large part on exports, reported this week that its exports … Continue reading
Dire growth data fuel Asian fears
From FT: Weak growth data from India and Malaysia on Friday provided fresh evidence of the deepening impact of the global recession on developing Asia. The figures are likely to put pressure on authorities to take much more forceful fiscal … Continue reading
AIR TRAFFIC SLUMP WORSENING
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) announced international scheduled traffic results for January showing a deepening year-on-year demand slump. International passenger demand fell by 5.6% in January 2009 compared to the same month in 2008. It is also a full … Continue reading
CHINA WATCH: RETAIL SALES DATA QUESTIONED
As I have written repeatedly, there are 4 conditions needed before a sustained recovery can be expected (or, before an economic catastrophe can be avoided): credit markets need to function better (underway), house prices need to stabilize (not yet), the … Continue reading
DURABLE GOODS ORDERS: WEAK, WEAK, WEAK
Charts from Bespoke Investment
Worst of U.S. Payroll Reductions May Be Over, Survey Shows
(Bloomberg) — More U.S. companies are adopting pay and hiring freezes to lower their labor costs during what is likely to be a prolonged recession rather than depending on further payroll reductions, a private survey found. The share of companies … Continue reading
“THERE WILL BE BLOOD”, HARVARD ECONOMIC HISTORIAN NIALL FERGUSON
Very interesting interview of Niall Ferguson by Heather Scoffield in The Globe & Mail. You can read the full article here. The most interesting quotes are given below (my emphasis): (…)the U.S. retains the safe-haven status, which makes the world … Continue reading
CATERPILLAR: BANKS NOT LENDING WHERE NEEDED
Reuters: A top executive at Caterpillar Inc , the world’s largest maker of construction and mining equipment, reiterated the company’s revenue and profit forecast for 2009 on Tuesday even as he acknowledged he was seeing few signs the troubled global … Continue reading
FED OFFICIALS’ ECONOMIC FORECASTS
The chart below, courtesy of the WSJ, summarises Fed officials’ forecasts on the economy for the next several years. GDP growth is seen recovering smartly in 2010 and 2011 without any inflation problem. Hum…
BANKS NATIONALISATIONS: BERNANKE AGAINST IT
From FT: Stress tests of big US banks that start this week are unlikely to lead to any of them being seized by regulators and nationalised outright, Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke told Congress on Tuesday. His comments provided the … Continue reading
JAPAN’S EXPORTS: WEAKNESS INTENSIFIES
From FT: Japan last month suffered a fall of nearly 50 per cent in exports, leading to the country’s worst trade deficit ever and fuelling fears that the recession will be longer and deeper than previously anticipated. Japanese exports fell … Continue reading
