Monthly Archives: February 2009

CONSUMER WATCH: RECENT SURVEY POINTS TO RENEWED WEAKNESS IN CONSUMER SPENDING

Although retailers have continued to display dismal year-over-year same-store-sales growth rates , week-over-week reports provided some hopes that things were not getting worst. Source: The International Council of Shopping Centers and Goldman Sachs Retail Chain Store Sales Index I am … Continue reading

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SHRINKING TRADE AROUND THE WORLD

From NYT: The world trading system, whose growth was deemed an inevitable part of globalization only a year ago, is now shrinking rapidly. Falling Exports Japan, a country built in large part on exports, reported this week that its exports … Continue reading

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Dire growth data fuel Asian fears

From FT: Weak growth data from India and Malaysia on Friday provided fresh evidence of the deepening impact of the global recession on developing Asia. The figures are likely to put pressure on authorities to take much more forceful fiscal … Continue reading

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AIR TRAFFIC SLUMP WORSENING

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) announced international scheduled traffic results for January showing a deepening year-on-year demand slump. International passenger demand fell by 5.6% in January 2009 compared to the same month in 2008. It is also a full … Continue reading

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CHINA WATCH: RETAIL SALES DATA QUESTIONED

As I have written repeatedly, there are 4 conditions needed before a sustained recovery can be expected (or, before an economic catastrophe can be avoided): credit markets need to function better (underway), house prices need to stabilize (not yet), the … Continue reading

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DURABLE GOODS ORDERS: WEAK, WEAK, WEAK

  Charts from Bespoke Investment

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Worst of U.S. Payroll Reductions May Be Over, Survey Shows

(Bloomberg) — More U.S. companies are adopting pay and hiring freezes to lower their labor costs during what is likely to be a prolonged recession rather than depending on further payroll reductions, a private survey found. The share of companies … Continue reading

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“THERE WILL BE BLOOD”, HARVARD ECONOMIC HISTORIAN NIALL FERGUSON

Very interesting interview of Niall Ferguson by Heather Scoffield in The Globe & Mail. You can read the full article here. The most interesting quotes are given below (my emphasis): (…)the U.S. retains the safe-haven status, which makes the world … Continue reading

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CATERPILLAR: BANKS NOT LENDING WHERE NEEDED

Reuters: A top executive at Caterpillar Inc , the world’s largest maker of construction and mining equipment, reiterated the company’s revenue and profit forecast for 2009 on Tuesday even as he acknowledged he was seeing few signs the troubled global … Continue reading

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FED OFFICIALS’ ECONOMIC FORECASTS

The chart below, courtesy of the WSJ, summarises Fed officials’ forecasts on the economy for the next several years. GDP growth is seen recovering smartly in 2010 and 2011 without any inflation problem. Hum…

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BANKS NATIONALISATIONS: BERNANKE AGAINST IT

From FT: Stress tests of big US banks that start this week are unlikely to lead to any of them being seized by regulators and nationalised outright, Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke told Congress on Tuesday. His comments provided the … Continue reading

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JAPAN’S EXPORTS: WEAKNESS INTENSIFIES

From FT: Japan last month suffered a fall of nearly 50 per cent in exports, leading to the country’s worst trade deficit ever and fuelling fears that the recession will be longer and deeper than previously anticipated. Japanese exports fell … Continue reading

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